President Biden is entering the 2024 presidential race with stronger support from his party compared to a year ago, according to a recent New York Times/Siena College poll. Although his approval rating has increased and more Democrats are rallying behind his re-election bid, there are still signs of concern for the president. Despite a friendlier national environment, Biden remains unpopular among the broader voting public, with an approval rating of only 39 percent.
One of the most concerning findings of the poll is that Biden and former President Donald J. Trump are tied at 43 percent each in a hypothetical rematch in 2024. This is especially worrying for Democrats, as Trump even maintains a commanding lead among likely Republican primary voters, despite facing criminal indictments and potential charges in the future.
Biden’s support within the Democratic Party appears to be broad but not necessarily deep. While Democrats have mostly accepted him as their standard-bearer, half of them would still prefer someone else as the nominee. Only 20 percent of Democrats said they would be enthusiastic if Biden were the nominee, while 26 percent expressed enthusiasm for Vice President Kamala Harris.
Notably, Biden’s support among small donors has been relatively weak, which aligns with the lack of fervor around his candidacy. Many voters who plan to vote for Biden in 2024 expressed their preference for other Democratic candidates. However, among those with a record of voting in primaries, Biden enjoys a wider lead.
Despite the lukewarm support, Biden still holds an advantage among key voting groups that helped solidify his victory in 2020, such as women, suburban voters, college-educated white voters, and Black voters. However, there are early signs of potential vulnerability with Hispanic voters, who have shifted toward Republicans in recent elections.
Although Biden’s approval rating of 39 percent is historically poor for an incumbent president seeking re-election, it has improved from 33 percent last July. Additionally, more Americans now believe the country is on the right track and that the economy is in excellent or good shape compared to a year ago.
Ultimately, while President Biden has gained more support from his party since last year, there are still warning signs for his re-election prospects. A close race with former President Trump and lukewarm enthusiasm within his own party indicate potential challenges for Biden in the upcoming 2024 presidential contest.