2023-08-01 14:56:01
A rich man’s problem that excites appetites. The use of Unédic surpluses is at the heart of the next negotiation on the rules of unemployment insurance which formally started on Tuesday with the sending by Matignon of the framework document to the social partners. Surpluses of more than 18 billion euros are expected by 2025 according to the plan’s forecasts, more according to the government, to be distributed between the deleveraging of the plan, the financing of France travail, the future public employment service and vocational training.
Given the improvement in employment and the payroll that goes with it on the one hand, and the drop in compensated unemployment on the other, Unédic plans to generate historic balances: 4.4 billion in 2023 then 5.4 and 8.7 billion the following two years. Based on better GDP growth assumptions, the executive anticipates even more. Provided that the labor market does not turn around, it maintains its objective of full employment by the end of the five-year term. That is an unemployment rate of about 5% of the active population in 2027, against 7.1% currently, which implies the creation of one million additional jobs.
What to do with all that money? For the social partners, it’s simple if we refer to their position: the surpluses must be used 100% to repay the 60.7 billion in debt of the regime, an amount recorded at the end of 2022. No problem for the government for which a share of the surplus must serve this purpose. But a “majority share” he specifies in the framing document. The minority share will be “transferred to the financing of the policy for full employment”.
The figures put forward do not really leave the choice to the unions and the employers, and show that the executive has already made its calculations. Thus, to enable this “investment” mainly in apprenticeship, Unédic’s receipts (employer unemployment contributions and CSG) will be deducted as follows: -2 billion from 2023 out of the 46.6 billion forecast by Unédic, then, ” for the duration of the agreement”, between -2.5 and -2.7 billion in 2024 (out of 48.2 billion), between -3 and -3.2 billion in 2025 (49.5), between -3, 5 and -4 billion in 2026 (figure not yet available).
Between 11.5 and 12.9 billion punctures
In addition, Unédic is called upon to increase its contribution to Pôle emploi, tomorrow France travail, main operator of the eponymous network. Currently, Unédic transfers to it each year N 11% of its revenue for year N-2, which provides two-thirds of its budget. This contribution “is intended to increase as the scheme generates surpluses to reach in 2026 between 12% and 13% of Unédic’s revenue”, judge Matignon.
Enough to generate between 500 million and a billion more than what is anticipated at this stage. It remains to be seen whether the government, all in its search for savings, will or will not maintain its one-third share of the Pôle Emploi budget. Labor, Olivier Dussopt.
All in all, it is therefore between 11.5 and 12.9 billion euros of Unédic’s revenue that the government “asks” the social partners to devote to full employment. Knowing that the new unemployment insurance agreement (if the social partners reach an agreement) “should not deteriorate the financial situation of the scheme, compared to that which would have prevailed by perpetuating the rules in force […] “, excluding senior measures that would be decided, annual revaluation of allowances, and the billions of punctures.
All of this, Matignon anticipates, will allow Unédic to “almost halve” its debt by 2026, bringing it to around 30 billion. The CGT denounced a “hold up” and “intends to discuss with the other unions to make a concerted decision”. Implied, to refuse to negotiate on these bases.
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