2023-08-01 17:48:53
The rise in electricity prices should only be the beginning on Tuesday. Under pressure to reduce the cost of the tariff shield, the government announced on July 18 a new 10% increase in regulated tariffs on August 1, triggering a volley of criticism in the ranks of the opposition and consumer associations.
Sign of the gradual end of the tariff shield put in place for two winters to reduce the bills of the French, this increase concerns households, craftsmen, small businesses and craftsmen “connected to a meter with a power of up to 36 kilovolt-amperes”. For an average consumer who heats with electricity, the bill will increase from 1,640 to 1,800 euros per year, the government has calculated.
Next reassessment in February 2024
He recalls, however, that the State will continue to support more than a third of the household bill (37% against 43% currently), guaranteeing the French a tariff among the lowest in Europe. Despite the government’s promise to contain electricity prices at a 15% increase in 2023, this will however be 25% with this new increase effective on August 1st.
After a previous increase of 15% in February, and 4% in February 2022, the increase in the regulated electricity tariff should continue. The next reassessment, scheduled for February 2024, should take into account the fact that the increase was “less than what the Energy Regulatory Commission (CRE) had proposed” in 2023, explains to L’Express Jacques Percebois, professor emeritus in economics at the University of Montpellier.
“On February 1, 2023, the increase should have been 99%, if we follow the calculations of the CRE”, recalls Jacques Percebois. But “it was only 15%, at the request of the government”, to limit the rise in bills. The note should also have been higher on August 1: the energy regulator recommended an increase of 74.5% including taxes, but the government decided to limit this increase to 10%.
“At the start of 2024, there will necessarily be a catch-up effect”, suggests Jacques Percebois, when the government announced the end of the tariff shield at the end of the year. “The CRE, when it calculates the price on February 1, will have to take into account the fact that the prices have not been increased as they should have been increased in 2023”. And this “even if wholesale market prices remain at a reasonable level”, according to the economist.
14 billion euros in savings
Professor Emeritus expects wholesale market prices ‘not to soar like in 2022, because the price of gas has become very low again and the price of electricity is completely normal today’ today”. However, several uncertainties remain on “the price of gas in the coming months, the availability of nuclear power and the demand for electricity, which also depends on temperatures”, specifies Jacques Percebois.
Gabriel Attal, then Minister Delegate for Public Accounts, warned in early July that “gradually leaving the tariff shield” by 2024 was necessary to “save money”. The government has estimated its cost at 110 billion euros from 2021 to 2023. For the 2024 budget, its reduction should generate savings of nearly 14 billion euros, according to Bercy.
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