2023-08-01 15:33:56
At the beginning of August last year, The Local reported on a heatwave in France, which saw temperatures soar to 39C in parts of the south of the country.
In 2023, however, many in northern and western France would be forgiven for wondering what had happened to the summer.
The heat this year has primarily been concentrated in certain regions. In mid-July, temperature records were broken on France’s Mediterranean coast, as southern Europe grappled with intense heat in the “Cerberus” heatwave. After the hottest June on record, France is set to record the second warmest July on record in 2023, beaten only by the deadly July of 2003.
READ ALSO 28.7C: Mediterranean Sea breaks daily temperature record
But, while the south of France baked, further north, temperatures limped into the low 20s, and were accompanied by cloud, strong winds and rain.
The north-south weather divide was so marked that it prompted reports on national news broadcasts, comparing holiday experiences on the Normandy coast – where coats were obligatory – to those on the Mediterranean – where suncream was the number one factor.
On top of that, storms and rain were common toward the end of July in northern and western France, as well as some mountainous parts of the country.
Earlier in the month, five departments in the east were placed on red alert for storms – the highest weather warning, then Paris got a soaking, and there were violent hailstorms in Drôme.
⛈ It’s the deluge in Paris where 24 mm of rain fell in just over 30 minutes (36 mm since this morning)! Water rushes down the stairs of Montmartre. (© Marie-ange Vingadassalom) pic.twitter.com/2B0JlL6EFj
— Weather Express (@WeatherExpress) July 28, 2023
What is causing the autumnal weather, according to forecasters?
For several days, the mercury has struggled to pass 25C across France. As for the beginning of August, the height of the French summer holiday season, storm watchdog Keraunos predicts a wet week in the north, with an entire month’s worth of rain likely in northern areas.
Week copiously wet in the north, in particular from the coasts of the English Channel to the borders of the northeast and Vosges/Jura/Morvan, north of the Alps.
The accumulations usually recorded in August could be reached or exceeded during the week in these areas. pic.twitter.com/uputroCQts— Keraunos (@KeraunosObs) July 31, 2023
Forecasters are blaming a low-pressure system from the North Atlantic, which is expected to push into France over the next few days, bringing with it what has been described as “exceptionally cool” air.
By the first weekend of August, forecasters say, the weather will feel “autumnal” over three-quarters of the country. Meanwhile, the Azores High – a summer anticyclone over the Portuguese archipelago of the Azores that normally has a major influence on French seasonal weather – is not as strong as it usually is at this time of year.
As a result, the northern half of the country, affected by humid and windy air, could experience temperatures well below seasonal averages by August 10, and even between 8C and 10C below normal at the end of the week – temperatures usually associated with early October, rather than early August.
In Paris, forecasts predict the mercury will be stuck between 15C in the morning and 24C in the afternoon over the first 10 days of August.
Further south, cooler conditions will be noticeable – certainly compared to mid-July – but should still stick around summertime norms, while the rain and wind buffeting the north isn’t expected to reach the southern coasts.
This isn’t necessarily good news. The mistral and tramontane winds will be strong, parching already tinder-dry land and increasing the risk of wildfires.
Longer forecasts, through to the end of the month, are less accurate – but forecasters predict the second half of the month could see a return to “classic” August conditions, that sticks within seasonal norms.
Even with a milder – even fresher – August, because of climate change summer 2023 is already the fourth hottest on record. Freshness, it turns out, is relative.
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