2023-08-03 13:00:00
GEOPOLITICS/ENERGY – Despite the putsch that overthrew Niger’s elected President Mohamed Bazoum in a few days since July 26, the state-owned French multinational, Orano (ex-Areva), which operates uranium mines , continues its activities. Not without concern since the putschists, led by General Abdourahamane Tiani, are openly hostile to France and its representations in Niger, such as its army or even its embassy in Niamey. This was the target of projectiles on Sunday during a rally of thousands of demonstrators in support of the military putschists. In response, President Emmanuel Macron affirmed that he “will not tolerate any attack against France and its interests”.
The uranium mines operated by Orano for half a century are one of these “interests” mentioned by the President of the Republic. Is a French military intervention possible, as the putschists fear, if the multinational Orano is targeted? What would be the impact of a suspension by the military of uranium exports to France, as mentioned by several media?
Exports to France suspended?
Niger’s natural resources, particularly uranium, have been at the center of attention since the coup d’état that targeted the elected president, Mohamed Bazoum, arrested by members of the Presidential Guard, led by General Abdourahamane Tiani. .
The putschist soldiers want to put an end to a “neo-colonial stranglehold by France” on Niamey and its resources. In addition to the 1,500 soldiers deployed several years earlier as part of the fight against terrorism, French economic interests in Niger boil down, mainly, to the presence of the multinational Orano, which operates three uranium mines there in the north.
In 2022, Niger was the second largest supplier of natural uranium to the European Union (EU), with a share of almost 26%. 103 nuclear reactors in 13 European countries were supplied by this Sahelian country.
Half of its reactors, or 56, are located in France, Euratom told AFP. Niger contributed 19% to France’s supply between 2005 and 2020, behind Kazakhstan and Australia. Orano, which specializes in the nuclear fuel cycle, employs some 900 people there. “99% of employees are Nigerians” and French nationals, including executives of this group, are evacuated from August 1st.
The coup thus aroused fears in France and in Europe as to the continued exploitation of these mines. But the “Orano’s operational activities continue”a announcement the multinational in a press release. An announcement that calls into question the information, relayed by many media, according to which the military junta has suspended exports of uranium and gold to France.
In reaction to the demonstration of Nigeriens in front of its embassy in Niamey, the Élysée strongly warned: “Anyone attacking French nationals, the army, diplomats and rights of way would see France respond immediately and intractably.”
What will happen if such a decision is actually taken by the Nigerien putschists? Will France consider securing the three mines of the Orano group, located in Arlit, Akouta and Imouraren, with its army? Will its uranium supply be affected?
A French military intervention is “improbable”
If Paris is accused by the Nigerien military of wanting “to intervene militarily”to defend his interests or above all, to restore Mohamed Bazoum in his functions, French parties believe such a scenario “improbable” and relativize Niger’s contribution in uranium.
This country “is no longer the strategic partner of Paris as it was in the 1960s-70s”, according Alain Antil, Director of the Sub-Saharan Africa Center at the French Institute for International Relations (IFRI). “I don’t see a foreign army arriving in Niamey and fighting with the Nigerien army, or at least the faction that supports the putsch. On the other hand, the economic sanctions are much stronger than those affecting Burkina Faso or Mali. “he said in a statement to Europe1.
A military intervention which could also come from member countries of the Community of West African States (ECOWAS), still according to the putschists. “The objective of this meeting (extraordinary ECOWAS summit on Sunday July 30, editor’s note) is the validation of a plan of aggression against Niger, through an imminent military intervention in Niamey in collaboration with non-African countries. members of the organization and some Western countries”a declared one of the putschists. foreign interventions “considered as feasible and usable options” against which Algeria has warned, which has called “with caution and restraint”.
What about the impact of a possible cessation of uranium exports? The Orano group is the first to react. “Uranium from Niger covers less than 10% of the uranium used in French nuclear power plants”, specifying that Niger represents only 4% of the world’s uranium production. The nuclear group has also invested in mines in Canada and especially in Kazakhstan, the world’s largest producer (45%). Investments that aim to reduce its dependence on African countries, with the aim of preventing the consequences of political instability.
French diplomacy also answered a question from the press on a “ban on all exports” of this ore and gold to France. “No French company operates a gold mine in Niger. As for uranium, our supplies are extremely diversified, Niger represents only 4% of world production”, lit-on.
This Sahelian country is one of the theaters of Operation Barkhane in the region, launched in 2014 to fight against terrorist groups and stopped in November 2022. A departure justified, among other things, by the hostility of local populations to the regard to France, accused by the leaders of neighboring countries, like Mali, of interference.
Causes to which are added “disinformation campaigns” on social networks, according to Paris, led by Russia, solicited in the same way as the mercenary group Wagner by the local populations.
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