2023-08-03 18:10:24
Political and security instability is one of the favorite foods on which jihadist groups feed. They can revel in it in the Sahel where coups follow one another. After Mali, Burkina Faso, it is around Niger to see its soldiers take power by force. Nothing is played for the moment because ECOWAS (Economic Community of West African States) does not intend to let this logic of domino.
But the situation is still unstable and the fight against terrorist groups, which are particularly rampant on the border of these three countries, may suffer from the stormy situation in Niger. It has already been weakened by the rejection of French troops, first in Mali and then in Burkina Faso. Today, another 1,500 French soldiers, in addition to special forces units, are present in Niger, with the same objective of countering armed groups. But for how much longer?
Niger, an effective shield
Because the threat is real. Two main groups play their part in the region: the Gnim (Support Group for Islam and Muslims), the branch of al-Qaeda in Mali, and the EIGS or the Islamic State in the greater Sahara. And facing them, “Niger is the only country where a multifactorial policy was put in place with the armed struggle but also negotiation, development and even a demobilization program in two regions, explains to 20 Minutes Wassim Nasr, specialist in jihadist movements, researcher at the Soufan Center, journalist at France 24 and author of The Islamic State, the fait accompli (Plon). Niger also has the ability to have been able to find ways of negotiation and deconfliction with the branch of al-Qaeda. Result: the situation, if not ideal, is better than in Mali and Burkina Faso”.
This is reflected in the balance sheets. If Niger was the target of an attack at the beginning of the year which killed 17 soldiers, “the scale of the attack is much smaller than the previous ones, especially in 2019 and 2020”, argues Marc Hecker, research director at the French Institute of International Relations (Ifri), specialist in terrorism and author of The Twenty Years’ War – Jihadism and Counterterrorism in the 21st Century (Robert Laffont). If the putschists manage to stay in power, this crucial defense for the region risks being encroached upon. However, Niger, in addition to being an effective shield, is geographically strategic for jihadist groups, and in particular the Islamic State. “It’s not for nothing that the French are based there,” underlines Wassim Nasr, who recalls that Niger is on the road that connects the Sahel to Lake Chad, and “if the corridor opens between the two branches of the Islamic State, that of Lake Chad and that of the Sahel, the group will be able to bring people from Nigeria,” he warns.
Towards a new rejection of France?
It is difficult to count on the G5 Sahel, a formation of five states (Mali, Burkina Faso, Niger, Mauritania and Chad) which has always had difficulty in really implementing an effective fight against jihadist groups and which is not today no longer a shadow of itself with at least two out of five countries outside the loop or in part. And since the ejection of French troops from Bamako and then Ouagadougou, the security situation in the two countries has not improved, “quite the contrary”, emphasizes Marc Hecker. Enough to fear a similar scenario in Niger, which could then spread to the entire region. “Niger had become a very important pillar of the French presence,” insists Marc Hecker. Emmanuel Macron had, it seems, learned the lessons of previous failures by applying a new, more discreet way of doing things to the service of the local armies with armaments, intelligence, aid in the air and also some ground troops in support of the Nigerien army. “Today the question is what will become of this partnership”, asks Marc Hecker.
But we are not there yet. “The mass is not said and ECOWAS promises a firm reaction”, recalls Jean-Marc Gravellini, associate researcher at the Institute of International and Strategic Relations (Iris). But in the event that Niger followed the same path as Mali and Burkina Faso, then yes, the French presence would most likely be rejected once again and “the whole new French approach would be undermined”, notes- he.
The importance of the struggle
However, “the fight must continue to be waged”, insists Marc Hecker. And the countries of the Sahel need this Western aid, in particular the material means that France and the United States provide. But beyond military support, “there is a larger problem in these asymmetrical conflicts which are not resolved only by military means”, he analyzes. It is also necessary to improve services to the population, political stability, the link between the different ethnic groups.
Because jihadist groups make their bread on divisions. This instability is “good news for them, if the situation deteriorates it offers them a growing scope for maneuver and an ability to expand territorially”, says Marc Hecker. Fortunately, then, that today, “they are more busy fighting among themselves to gain the upper hand in the region”, explains Wassim Nasr. But an opening of the road to Nigeria could come to reinforce humanly and materially the Islamic State which would then be able to take over al-Qaeda. “Paradoxically, if this dyke falls, it would open up the countries of the Gulf of Guinea to it and the Islamic State could extend its presence there,” observes Wassim Nasr.
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