2023-08-04 09:21:44
Vienna Almost a year and a half after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, it doesn’t take much to trigger nervousness on Poland’s eastern border. On Tuesday morning, a patrol by two Belarusian military helicopters caused unrest in Warsaw: After the Polish military leadership initially spoke of a scheduled routine flight, the Ministry of Defense reported an airspace violation in the evening.
Although it remains doubtful whether Minsk acted on purpose, Poland’s government lamented the “provocation” of the hostile neighbor and announced that it would reinforce troops in the heavily forested border region. The incident was reported to NATO. The United States had to make it clear that this was not an alliance case, which Ukrainian commentators have already interpreted as giving in to Russia.
The situation was already very tense before the incident. Directly responsible for this is the transfer of units of the Wagner paramilitaries to Belarus after the end of their mutiny in Russia.
So far there are no signs that the mercenaries are stationed there in large numbers, but Ukrainians and Poles speak of several hundred fighters. However, there are reports that 100 of them are holding exercises near the Polish border. The fact that these are taking place near the so-called Suwalki Gap increases fears in Poland. The helicopters were also not far from this region.
The Suwalki Gap designates a narrow corridor on Polish and Lithuanian territory between Belarus and Kaliningrad. For NATO, it is the only land connection to the Baltic states and is considered the most vulnerable section of the alliance. On Thursday, Poland’s Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki and Lithuania’s head of state Gitanas Nauseda announced stronger border protection in the Polish border town of Suwalki.
The Polish border is being defended against provocations by the Belarusian ruler Alexander Lukashenko and the Russian private army Wagner, Morawiecki said, according to the PAP agency. Nauseda did not rule out that the neighboring countries of Poland, Lithuania and Latvia could close their border with Belarus in a coordinated manner.
Statements from both Warsaw and Minsk increase concerns about a conflict. “Pray that we stop them,” Lukashenko said recently about the paramilitaries. “Otherwise they would devastate Rzeszow and Warsaw so much that nothing would be left of it.” Polish Deputy Prime Minister Jaroslaw Kaczynski recently warned gloomily of a “great danger” and an imminent war.
Poland as a bulwark on NATO’s eastern border
Lukashenko seeks attention with his threatening gestures and wants to distract from his military-political dependence on Moscow. He is not interested in a direct confrontation with NATO, but he is interested in pin-pricking Poland. He proved this before the Ukraine war, when he had thousands of migrants brought to the border to put pressure on his neighbors.
Migrants on the border between Belarus and Poland
The government in Minsk wanted to put pressure on the neighboring country by bringing large numbers of people to the border, and Poland responded by building a border wall.
(Photo: AP)
The right-wing government in Warsaw then skilfully presented itself as a guarantor of stability. As early as 2021, she moved large contingents of troops to the east and built a border wall. Since Russia’s invasion of the neighboring country, it has further cemented its claim to be a bulwark on NATO’s eastern border. Without Poland, Ukraine could hardly wage a defensive war. The EU state provides aid worth billions and acts as a central hub for military and humanitarian goods.
>> Read here: How the Ukraine war strengthens Poland
This policy still enjoys broad support among the Polish population. But after almost a year and a half of war, tensions are growing: the more than one million Ukrainian refugees are seen as both an enrichment and a burden, and inflation is high. In addition, the hot phase of the election campaign before the parliamentary elections in autumn is now beginning, in which the right-wing Konfederacja party scores with anti-Ukrainian positions in the right-wing camp.
Diplomatic dispute between Poland and Ukraine
The election campaign hasn’t changed Warsaw’s support for Kiev, but the tone has become harsher. The main point of contention is the Ukrainian grain exports, which are backed up in neighboring countries. Local farmers see them as unwelcome competitor products, leading to a drop in prices. The EU has therefore been blocking imports into five Central and Eastern European countries for three months – much to Kiev’s displeasure.
It is therefore not surprising that Poland’s offensive demand for an extension of the import ban, which expires in mid-September, has now triggered the first real diplomatic crisis with Ukraine. Politicians in Kiev have sharply criticized Warsaw’s stance, especially against the background of Russia’s withdrawal from the grain agreement.
Polish President Andrzej Duda and his Ukrainian counterpart Volodymyr Zelensky
Poland has so far been a big supporter of the country attacked by Russia.
(Foto: NurPhoto/Getty Images)
This prompted the Polish President’s foreign policy adviser to urge Ukrainians to show more gratitude for the neighboring country’s support, rather than making demands.
>> Read here: Ukraine wants to start producing more weapons itself again
Kiev then summoned the Polish ambassador – ironically, he is the only foreign representative who never left the Ukrainian capital, even during the fiercest Russian attacks last year.
An adviser to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky accused the neighboring country of playing into the hands of Russia with the “treacherous” criticism. “There’s nothing worse than when your rescuer asks you for money while you’re bleeding.” Poland’s Prime Minister Morawiecki called the ambassador’s summons a mistake. For him it is clear that the interests of his country always come first.
Even if the potential for escalation of these diplomatic quarrels is limited in view of the common enemy Russia, it nevertheless manifests a cooling off in friendship and a certain mutual irritation.
A pro-government political scientist in Warsaw says that not only Poles but also other supporters are fed up with Zelenski’s attempts to exert pressure and with his entitlement. These are increasingly counterproductive for the willingness to help. For their part, Ukrainians have noticed that international support has been on the wane since the spring, causing frustration. The war, on the other hand, continues with undiminished severity.
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