Mild Summer Surge in Covid Cases Expected as Public Health Infrastructure Changes
Public health officials in the US are warning of a potential increase in Covid cases during the summer months due to a combination of hot weather pushing people indoors and an increase in summer travels and events. However, recent changes to the US disease-fighting infrastructure, including the end of the federal Covid public health emergency, have made it more difficult to accurately assess the extent of the threat.
According to the latest data released by the Centers for Disease Control (CDC), hospitalizations for Covid were up 12% for the week ending in July 22. Emergency department visits also increased by 17%. Despite these increases, deaths related to Covid were still the lowest since the agency began tracking the virus. Hospitalizations were at nearly one-sixth of their levels during the same period last year.
“The U.S. has experienced increases in COVID-19 during the last three summers, so it’s not surprising to see an uptick after a long period of declining rates,” stated CDC spokesperson Kathleen Conley. Experts also noted that the modest increase in cases does not appear to be driven by a new variant.
Dr. Leana Wen, an emergency physician and professor of health policy and management at the George Washington University Milken Institute School of Public Health, emphasized that this current increase is not due to the emergence of a new variant. She added, “According to the CDC, all existing variants are offshoots of the Omicron strain, which first emerged in late 2021.”
As health officials work to respond to the rise in cases, they face certain challenges compared to previous periods of the pandemic. The Biden administration ceased mailing free Covid tests in June, and the end of the public health emergency means that the largest insurers are no longer required to cover the cost of tests. Many of the home tests purchased or received by Americans during earlier stages of the pandemic are now expiring. Additionally, Medicaid will stop providing tests in September 2024.
William Schaffner, an infectious diseases specialist at Vanderbilt University, expressed concern over the lack of freely available testing, saying, “We are going to continue to see people hospitalized for Covid for illnesses that could have been prevented had testing been freely and widely available.”
Furthermore, the end of the public health emergency in May resulted in the discontinuation of mandatory reporting of Covid data to the CDC. The reliance on at-home testing instead of official clinic check-ups also means that the true extent of Covid across the country is not being accurately captured, as many people either choose not to get tested or opt for at-home testing.
In the absence of widespread government-supervised testing, experts have turned to wastewater surveillance to monitor the spread of Covid. However, even this method comes with its own set of challenges. A recent study found that wastewater surveillance is no longer as reliable in predicting official case rates or hospitalization numbers as it was in previous years. This is likely due to increasing immunity in the US population and the declining accuracy of official case counts due to the widespread use of at-home tests.
As the Covid situation evolves, health officials and experts continue to grapple with the changing landscape of testing and monitoring methods. It remains crucial for individuals to remain vigilant and adhere to public health guidelines to prevent the further spread of the virus.