2023-08-09 15:36:09
An ECOWAS summit is to be held this Thursday, July 10 in Abuja, the Nigerian capital, to decide on the course of action in the face of the refusal to surrender by putschist General Abdourahamane Tiani. The regime resulting from the coup d’etat of July 26 multiplies acts of defiance, ignoring the threats of the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS).
The junta declined, Tuesday, July 8, negotiations with the tripartite delegation composed of ECOWAS, the African Union and the United Nations. The day before, the military authorities appointed a civilian prime minister, Ali Mahaman Lamine Zeine, thus laying the first stone of a transitional government while the elected president, Mohamed Bazoum, is still sequestered in his residence in Niamey.
ECOWAS had already warned the coup regime, warning it that “all necessary measures” would be taken and could “include the use of force”. But the prospect of a military intervention worries, from the Maghreb to West Africa. Many African political figures are calling for diplomacy rather than engaging in a conflict that could destabilize the region.
Consider “stability and development”
The leaders of the ECOWAS countries are numerous to display their reluctance in the face of the establishment of an armed operation. “Every human life matters, and that means that every decision taken by the (West African) bloc will be taken taking into account the peace, stability and development of not only the sub-region, but also the African continent” , said Tuesday Ajuri Ngelale, the spokesperson for the Nigerien president on the position of ECOWAS.
The newly elected President of Nigeria, Bola Tinubu, has nevertheless pledged during his campaign to fight against the contagion of coups d’etat in West Africa. Currently at the head of ECOWAS, he is one of those who first spoke out in favor of intervention: “We are defending democracy and this must continue. […] We are ready and as soon as we receive the order to intervene, we will. We are absolutely sure of succeeding,” said its army chief, General Christopher Musa, on July 31. The Nigerian army is one of the most experienced in the region, equipped with fighter planes and drones. But the jihadist threat and insecurity affecting Nigeria already concentrates the majority of its forces.Nigerian senators thus expressed, on Saturday August 5, their reluctance to engage Nigeria in a conflict where the country would be on the front line, sharing 1 500 kilometers of borders with southern Niger.
In Senegal, the political class is divided on the subject. Former minister and opposition deputy Thierno Alassane Sall questioned on Saturday the potential human toll of such a war despite the official condemnation of this “coup (d’etat) too many” by the Senegalese authorities. The putschist regimes of Burkina Faso and Mali have already announced an “alliance of juntas” which further complicates an intervention. The two countries have promised a response to any armed operation against their neighbor Niger, which they will consider as a “declaration of war”. Even in the Maghreb, the idea disturbs. Algeria, which is not a member of ECOWAS, remains a border state with Niger. Algerian President Abdelmadjid Tebboune announced that an intervention would be “a direct threat” to the country.
The jihadist question
In Côte d’Ivoire, the ten-day national mourning continues in tribute to Henri Konan Bédié, the former Ivorian president, who died on the evening of August 1. But like its Ghanaian and Beninese neighbors, the country fears the political and security instability that the jihadists in the region could take advantage of with a new junta in charge. Particularly rife on the western border of Niger, the stormy geopolitical situation and a new withdrawal of French troops in the region (after Mali and Burkina Faso) could leave the field open to terrorist groups. The coup regime in Niger has indeed revoked the agreements with France and withdrawn its ambassador.
The junta is blowing more and more on the separatist embers and relying on the emulation of anti-French sentiment to win favor with the population. Sunday, July 30, the major demonstrations against the forced dismissal of General Tiani illustrated this feeling very present in public opinion, with many slogans against French interference in Niger. For ECOWAS, already weakened and criticized in Niger, the intervention could further damage its image with the populations. The complexity and the slowness of the implementation of such an operation could also hurt the credibility of the institution, as in 2017, during the intervention against the outgoing president Yahya Jammeh, defeated in the elections, who refused to leave the power in The Gambia.
For some experts, an armed conflict would also be devastating in terms of the fight against terrorism. “They (the Malian and Burkinabe juntas) should, like the Nigeriens, mobilize their most seasoned soldiers, currently engaged in the fight against terrorism, which would create a call for air for jihadist groups in the region. It would be catastrophic “, recently confided to L’Express Tristan Guéret, specialist in terrorism issues in the Sahel for the firm Control Risks.
An opportunity for Wagner
US Secretary of State Antony Blinken said in an interview with the BBC on Tuesday that the forced departure of President Mohamed Bazoum had not been “fomented by Russia or by Wagner”. The destabilization and withdrawal of Western troops could also benefit the Russian group of mercenaries. Already established in several African countries in crisis, Wagner continues to set up anti-Western propaganda which seems to find a strong echo in the population of Niger.
The ECOWAS summit to be held this Thursday, August 9 should at least allow to define the legal contours of a possible operation. The request for intervention by a Head of State, which would allow the rallying of Western troops, seems complicated in the current case of Niger. President Mohamed Bazoum is still being held hostage, like several of his ministers. An operation by West African armies on an ECOWAS mandate would require the opinion of the United Nations Security Council – a possibility that is still unresolved. In The Gambia, in 2017, ECOWAS had however benefited from an implicit authorization since the Council had not condemned the intervention.
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