2023-08-09 18:48:07
Heat waves, often analyzed in terms of health impact, also have an effect on economic activity: “ The recent heat waves in the United States, Europe and Asia have already cost the entire world economy 0.6 points of GDP in 2023 “say three economists who conducted a study for the research department of the credit insurer Allianz Trade.
Slow Economy
The economic impact of an extremely hot day, i.e. with a temperature above 32°C, is “equivalent to that of a half-day strike”they add by way of comparison.
They explain this loss by the fact that “Employees affected by the heat reduce their working hours, experience slowdowns in their tasks and make mistakes. The decrease in productivity at work resulting from extreme temperatures is a well-known phenomenon,” they write.
These facts are confirmed by the International Labor Organization, since it quantifies at 50% the fall in labor productivity when the temperature reaches 33°C.
The economies have not all been affected with the same intensity by these heat waves, according to their calculations: while Spain and Greece have already lost 1 and 0.9 points of GDP respectively, France is only relieved by 0.1 point, less prone to scorching temperatures this summer.
An uneven adaptation
It is possible – and even necessary – to adapt to high temperatures, since they seem to be becoming the new norm that punctuates our summers. Several solutions exist, such as “working early in the morning or in the evening, renovating buildings, setting up warning systems or greening cities”says the Allianz Trade study.
Adaptive capacities are a function of a country’s level of wealth. Poor countries tend to have less diversified economies. They are therefore less able to absorb the losses incurred in certain sectors. “ Large developed economies are better able to cope with production losses “, explain the authors of the study.
This state of affairs is confirmed by a study published in the journal “Science Advances” last October. It calculates that increased heat waves would lead to a shortfall of almost 7% of GDP per capita in poor countries, compared to 1.5% for more prosperous economies.
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