2023-08-09 19:43:53
Simple false flat, or the start of a real descent? While the economy seems to be holding up better than expected and should support revenues, one indicator should be watched carefully in the weeks to come, in full preparation for a 2024 budget which promises to be difficult to balance: VAT showed, on the first six months of the year, a loss of momentum, which raises questions at Bercy as with certain budgetary experts.
The latest summer news, however, had enough to reassure the guardians of the citadel of public accounts. At the end of July, INSEE announced a level of growth for the second quarter well above what had been expected (+0.5% in the spring in France, i.e. five times faster than expected), bringing the acquis on the year at +0.8%. The government’s forecast of +1% therefore seems more within reach than ever, which has relieved the executive: without this good surprise, it would undoubtedly have been necessary to freeze more ministerial appropriations to meet the objective of a deficit at -4.9% of GDP at the end of the year, which is rarely politically promising…
#Budget #State #faced #shortness #VAT #receipts