2023-08-13 21:37:14
The hangover from 23J continues to leave bad news for the PP. The party, unable to overcome in the negotiations these days the 172 votes for a hypothetical investiture of Alberto Núñez Feijóo, loses support regarding the results of the general elections and sees how its leader falls off a cliff in valuation, with a drop of almost eight points in a month. The PSOE, although it also falls, does so to a lesser extent, remains in its best data and for the first time in a long time is in a position to challenge the popular for first place.
That is the scenario drawn by this month’s poll prepared by Simple Logic for elDiario.es, the first after the 23J elections. The PP won the elections with 33.1% of the votes and 137 deputies, insufficient to reach 176 of the absolute majority with the sum of Vox, which plummeted to 33.
The survey, carried out between July 31 and August 7, indicates that the PP would now be below those results, and would obtain 31.9% of the votes. The popular ones remain far from the best estimates of recent months and see how, for the first time in a long time, the Socialists can challenge them for first place.
The PSOE obtained 31.7% of the votes on 23J, a result not found in any survey. The Socialists added a million votes and resisted the push from the right with 121 deputies. The Simple Lógica poll believes that they would now be five tenths below those results, but even so, it is one of their best data from the series of polls over the last year, and places them, for the first time since December 2022, with options to dispute the first place to the PP.
These numbers make the PSOE the party that best retains its voters right now. 87% would repeat with the same ballot while the PP, which until now presented the best data, is located with a fidelity of 85%.
Already below, the battle for third place continues to be decided in favor of Vox, although as happened in the elections, by a very narrow margin. According to the poll, the far-right party would now achieve better results than 23J: 12.9% of the votes compared to 12.4%. Of course, it is an estimate well below those that it has maintained during these years, when it managed to be above 18% for a month.
Sumar would also obtain better data than in the general elections. In his case, 12.7% of the votes compared to the 12.3% he obtained in the elections. As with Vox, it is also below its best estimate, which came close to 15%.
With these data, the fight between blocks is tighter than ever. The parties of the right would add 44.8% of the votes, while those of the left would reach 43.9%. In June, the difference was almost eight points.
Sánchez and Díaz tie in popularity, Feijóo collapses
If 23J has had a stronger impact on anything, it is the valuation data of political leaders. Pedro Sánchez rises more than two points, to get a positive assessment of 47.1%, the best historical data for him. Sumar’s candidate, Yolanda Díaz, increases her positive assessment from 42.1% to 47%, and is tied with the current acting President of the Government.
It is just the opposite effect to that produced in the right-wing candidates. The leader of the PP collapses and goes from 32.6% to 24.9% after the elections. The Vox candidate, Santiago Abascal, repeats as the worst valued with one of the worst data for him. He goes from 18.9% to 13.2%.
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How to stop the lies
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National survey, carried out by telephone to a sample of 1098 individuals entitled to vote in general elections. Proportional distribution (CCAA * habitat size and sex and age quotas). He 93,1% of the interviews were conducted on randomly generated mobile phones. The error for the aggregate data, assuming simple random sampling, is +3,02 points, for a confidence level of 95.5%, in the most unfavorable hypothesis (p=q=50%). The interviews were conducted between July 31st and the 7 of August of 2023.
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