2023-08-14 19:30:00
TRIBUNE/ANALYSIS – On August 5, 2023, the former Pakistani Prime Minister Imran Khan was sentenced to three years in prison, following a series of incredible charges, including that of having received gifts whose value he underestimated when he was in power. On August 8, his lawyers filed an appeal to suspend the application of his sentence, which prevents him in fact to stand in the next elections.
General elections which will be rushed, after the request for dissolution of the current Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif to the President of the Islamic Republic of Pakistan, Arif Alvi, made this Wednesday, August 9. If the electoral commission theoretically has 90 days to organize a poll in such circumstances, it is asking for a longer period to redraw the map of the electoral districts, whose recent update of the data dates from May.
The fear of a bloody election period
In a context of tension and political and economic crisis, the holding of the elections could therefore be postponed until 2024. While waiting for a date to be specified, Senator Anwaar-ul-Haq Kakar has been appointed interim Prime Minister. According to certain sources, the latter would benefit from an extension of his functions which would enable him to carry out an economic program in collaboration with the International Monetary Fund (IMF).
As for the “Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf” (PTI), founded by Imran Khan, the future is unclear. The latter was imprisoned. In mid-July, several party members deserted the ranks to create a new formation called Tehreek-e-Insaf Parliamentariansaccusing Imran Khan of carrying out a strategy of hatred and confrontation through the organization of demonstrations.
These defections, however, did not affect Khan, who for his part accused the politicians concerned of having bowed to pressure and of being opportunists and a burden on his party. What tends to be confirmed on the electoral level: at the end of July 2023, the party of Imran Khan took the crucial control of the assembly of the province of Punjab by winning 15 of the 20 seats to be filled in the by-elections.
It should also be noted that the two usually feuding dynastic parties that lead the incumbent coalition, the Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz of the Sharif and the Pakistan People’s Party (PPP) of the Bhutto have received little popular support over the past few years. 18 months at the head of the fifth most populous country in the world.
Added to the risk of a lack of fairness is the suicide attack committed in Khar (45 km from the Afghan border) at the end of July, which targeted a political meeting. Claimed by the Islamic State group, it raises fears of a bloody electoral period.
Located on the borders of Asia between Iran, Afghanistan, China and India, Pakistan has a history dotted with global struggles for influence between the different blocs. The various trade routes which are taking shape under the terms of a growing multipolarity on the international scene make it a coveted partner which, moreover, is endowed with nuclear weapons (it is estimated today that the Pakistani army would possess up to two hundred nuclear warheads whose control would be highly coveted by the United States) and a population of 220 million.
I. Pakistan and the international scene
Pakistan has never been truly independent. It has always remained more or less a country in the hands of the United Kingdom and the United States. During the Western war against the Afghan communist regime and the Soviets (1980s), it became a rear base for the mujahideen and bin Laden fighters, with Pakistan supporting them both on behalf of the CIA. The United States not only supported these forces, it brought to power in Pakistan General Muhammad Zia-ul-Haq, a member of the Brotherhood of the Muslim Brotherhood (linked to the British MI6 and the CIA) overthrowing democracy (hanging of President Zukfikar Ali Bhutto and restoration of Sharia). President Bhutto’s daughter, Benazir Bhutto, who was Prime Minister of Pakistan in the 1990s, was also assassinated by the Taliban.
This feudalism ceased with the coming to power of Imran Khan.
II – Towards a redistribution of diplomatic cards driven by Imran Khan
According to Imran Khan in an interview with the BBC in early August 2023, the army – which has always been behind the scenes the “kingmaker” – is petrified at the idea of the election to be held in the last quarter of this year or early 2024, an election that could lead it to lose its leverage and its broad influence on the Pakistani political landscape.
This fear would result in legal actions, pardons or exile and growing pressures. In Pakistan, behind any election is indeed the army, which has organized at least three coups since the country was forged from the partition of India in 1947. Imran Khan, according to the analysts, only came to power with the blessing of the country’s powerful generals, with whom he later fell out.
Imran Khan was elected in August 2018 as Prime Minister through his party, Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI), before facing a motion of no confidence in April 2022 following external pressure including US threats to the against his supporters, political allies and himself, the United States reproaching him for his geostrategic positioning, including the denunciation of the grip of the Anglo-Saxons on his country and his refusal to align himself with the American positions concerning Russia and China.
Imran Khan came to power by combining promises of social reform, religious conservatism and the fight against corruption. He succeeded in reaching a national consensus in a country whose vote is mainly ethnic (Pandjabis vote PML, Hindis vote PPP, Pashtuns vote ANP and Mohajirs vote MQM). Following his election, ties with European countries and especially with Washington were relaxed and a rapprochement with China and Russia was made with the leitmotif of Pakistan’s sovereignty and its diplomatic independence, while its predecessors have always been submissive, willy-nilly, to the interests of the Anglo-Saxons (the United States in the lead).
For the motion of no confidence in April 2022, Imran Khan lost his majority because one of the parties left the alliance it formed with the PTI. As such, deputies would certainly have been bought off. A few days before the vote, Imran Khan claimed to have threatening letters from the US Embassy, including one for his refusal to establish US military bases on Pakistani soil, as well as evidence of a US plot hatched against him. .
Imran Khan has claimed the United States is seeking to oust him from power, as he faces a vote of no confidence in Pakistan’s National Assembly. As such, he declared that a foreign country was conspiring against him and that his political adversaries were working on orders from that country. The evidence advanced by Imran Khan includes an official diplomatic cable from the United States to Pakistan which stated: “If the vote of no confidence passes, we will forgive you. If it does not pass, and Imran Khan remains the Prime Minister , then Pakistan will be in a difficult situation.”
Obviously, the new power and the supreme court denied. Islamabad High Court Chief Justice Athar Minallah issued a legal opinion that Imran Khan could not share this letter in public due to his oath of secrecy. Imran Khan thus paid for his open support for the struggle against Western hegemony. In November 2022, Imran Khan faced an assassination attempt where he was injured and resulted in several deaths.
The sudden warming of US-Pakistani relations, which were at their lowest under Imran Khan, immediately after his ouster highlighted the Biden administration’s joy and relief at this coup regime change. constitutional.
III – Pakistan and major development projects on a regional scale and beyond
Despite sizable strengths, the current Pakistani economy is still in the doldrums despite a new IMF bailout, with crushing external debt, soaring inflation and widespread unemployment in factories shut down for lack of foreign exchange. for the purchase of raw materials (in June 2023, however, Pakistan sourced oil from Russia at a lower cost by paying in Chinese yuan).
Accompanying IMF aid, economic decisions are invariably difficult and often unpopular because they are inspired by neo-liberal structural reforms that lead to a drop in the standard of living and a return to poverty. Pakistan, however, received positive signals in mid-July 2023 from Saudi Arabia which paid two billion dollars and from the United Arab Emirates which transferred one billion dollars to consolidate the country’s foreign exchange reserves.
It is too early to know what direction the new government resulting from the next elections will take with regard to the BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa), Russia, the Afghan Taliban, the West, Kashmir, Pakistan’s participation in the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) joined in June 2017 and major international development projects.
As such, Pakistan is at the heart of energy routes, the IPI gas pipeline project linking Iran, Pakistan and India could replace the one connecting Turkmenistan, Afghanistan, Pakistan and India. In both alternatives, Pakistan is a party to the project.
At a time of the rise of the BRICS, the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) through the Himalayas and the New Silk Roads (BRI), the International North-South Transport Corridor (INSTC), destabilized Pakistan is a boon for the western clan.
Choix crucial
In conclusion, Pakistan faces a crucial choice between joining the Anglo-Saxon bloc or extending its path within the emerging multipolar world. This historic moment cannot suffer basely political calculations and external pressures accompanied by “neocolonialist” threats.
Faced with an unprecedented economic crisis and a sometimes tarnished image on the international scene, the challenges for the new government resulting from the elections scheduled for the end of the year or the beginning of 2024 will be great, but the geographical location of the country and the interest that it arouses are bearers of hope even if this greed can lead to tensions which require a strong, honest and independent government.
The United States let it be known on August 9 that it was following with concern the situation in Pakistan being concerned about any action which could contribute to the instability of the country… and one could add and to their interests in the region.
*Catherine Roman is French and lived in Russia for a few years. She works in the figures sector and is passionate about geopolitics and economic intelligence.
Principales sources : The Intercept (Ryan Grim, Murtaza Hussain), BBC (Charlie Haynes et Derek Cai), Le FigaroAFP, Washington Post (Munir Ahmed), Reuters (Asif Shahzad) , The echoesAl Jazeera (Abid Hussain), Thierry Meyssan, Seymour M. Hersh, Djamal Yalaoui, Maxim Medovarov, Andrew Korybko, Pepe Escobar, Steven Sahiounie, Al Manar, Alahed (Samer Zoughaib), Ide e Azione (Ejak Akram).
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