2023-08-14 06:32:47
Colin Clark* / The New York Times 14.08.2023 • 07:32
In July, the head of the private mercenary army Wagner Group, Yevgeny Prigozhin, released a video from its new base in Belarus welcoming its fighters to their country of exile following the group’s ill-fated mutiny, which aspired to a coup. He told them, however, something else: to prepare for “a new journey, in Africa”.
It was the first public message, confirming what many observers already took for granted: that Wagner’s expansion operations in Africa would continue after Prigozhin’s exile. A few days later, after the coup in Niger ousted the elected president, Mohamed Bazum, Prigozhin wasted no time in offering his services to the new junta leader, although it is unclear what control he still has over the group after his failed coup attempt. June.
The events immediately fueled speculation that the Moscow had organized the coup, an idea encouraged by videos showing Nigerians waving Russian flags in the capital Niamey. The UUnited States insist there is “no indication” that either Prigozhin or the Russian president was involved, while a spokesman for Russian state media presented the events as an example of a Russian-led “anti-colonial revolution”, a BBC reporter said.
Be that as it may, Bazum’s expulsion from Niger’s army gave Prigozhin and Putin a prime opportunity. It allowed them to overcome the mutual embarrassment of the failed June mutiny and show that Wagner’s power is growing in Africa at the same time as the West’s military presence is waning. As terrorist groups strengthen in West Africa’s “neighborhood,” this reversal could develop into a major security threat.
Over the past decade, the Sahel, a vast near-desert region of west and north-central Africa, has become a hotbed of terror groups including Islamic State, Boko Haram and Jama’a Nusrat al-Islam wal-Muslimeen. France’s eight-year military campaign to stabilize the region, dubbed Operation Barkanet, ended in failure in the fall of 2022, leaving a security vacuum that was quickly filled by jihadists and Wagner mercenaries.
Contrary to the narrative that followed, Niger – although a democracy – was by no means an oasis of stability: The Global Terrorism Index has recorded a steady increase in terrorism-related deaths in the country in recent years. However, the country’s successive elected governments have at least been willing to cooperate with Washington, allowing the US military to conduct regional “counter-terrorist operations”.
This system did not collapse after Prigozhin’s failed coup. Within days of Wagner’s failed advance on Moscow, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said the mercenary army was “holding well” in Africa. Late last month, Prigozhin reportedly emerged from exile in St. Petersburg, where he posed with African leaders who were in the city for a summit also attended by Putin.
But while Wagner’s mercenaries are being hired by various African states to fight and weaken jihadist groups, their growing presence – and reputation for brutality – is having the opposite effect. Terrorist organizations have used growing dissatisfaction with the private army’s scorched-earth tactics to recruit new members, offering them both protection and an opportunity for revenge. As the militant threat gains strength, there is growing and justified concern about the expansion of the groups in countries such as Togo, Benin, Ghana and the Ivory Coast.
If the Sahel devolves into a hodgepodge of jihadist states, the West will have few, if any, options to contain the growing threat and will certainly have to incur huge costs. Instead, for the Wagner group and Russia, it would mean more money in the bank – and more influence in the region.
* Mr. Colin Clark is head of research at the Soufan Group in New York.
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