Tropical Storm Hilary Forms, Poses Potential Threat to Western US
Tropical Storm Hilary formed on Wednesday southwest of Mexico and is expected to pass along the country’s Baja Peninsula before potentially impacting western parts of the United States. While it is still too early to determine the exact magnitude of rainfall and wind impacts, forecasters at the National Hurricane Center have warned that the storm is likely to rapidly intensify.
As of Wednesday evening, Hilary was approximately 390 miles south of Manzanillo, Mexico, with maximum sustained winds of 50 mph. The storm is projected to become a hurricane by Thursday afternoon and could potentially strengthen to at least a Category 3 hurricane, with winds of at least 111 mph, over the next two to three days.
Although Hilary is expected to weaken as it crosses cooler waters off the central and northern Baja Peninsula, it still has the potential to bring significant impacts to portions of California and the southwest. Daniel Swain, a climate scientist at the University of California at Los Angeles, has warned that areas in California that are currently experiencing drought could potentially see “multiple years’ worth of precipitation” from the storm.
The uncertainty of the forecast means that a wide range of outcomes is still possible, as Hilary will be moving parallel to the Baja Peninsula. Even small deviations in the storm’s track could result in significant shifts in rainfall amounts and impacts. The San Diego National Weather Service has stated that this storm has the potential to be a “very high impact event” for portions of Southern California. They have also emphasized that there is still uncertainty in the forecast and more details will come in the coming days regarding the exact timing, location, and magnitude of the storm’s impacts.
As Hilary continues to develop and move closer to the United States, residents in potentially affected areas are advised to stay updated on the latest weather forecasts and to follow any evacuation orders or precautions issued by local authorities.