Ibovespa has 13th loss in a row, a record in the historical series that started in 1968 By Estadão PRODUTO

2023-08-18 10:00:36

© Reuters Ibovespa has 13th loss in a row, record in the historical series started in 1968

Finally fulfilled the prophecy drawn little by little from the 1st of August and reaped, this Thursday, the 17th, the greatest sequence of losses ever recorded in the index, in a historical series that goes back to the beginning of 1968. fair, without yet registering a daily gain since the opening of the month, the reference of B3 (BVMF:) reached the 13th setback in a row, an unprecedented sequence. In this way, it surpasses the 12 losses between May and June 1970 according to the AE Dados, a series that had been equaled on Wednesday, 16, by the index. Before, the Ibovespa, in a very gradual rhythm of adjustment, had been matching other important series, from 1998, 1995 and 1984.

This Thursday, it closed down 0.53%, at 114,982.30 points, now at the lowest closing level since June 6 (114,610.10), between a low of 114,859.21 (-0.63%) and a high of 116,610.49 points in the session, leaving the opening at 115,592.14 points. In August, the index accumulated a loss of 5.71%, limiting the year’s advance to 4.78% – at the end of July, it was at 11.13% for 2023, so close to 122 thousand points.

In the week, retreat 2.61%. This Thursday’s turnover was R$ 27.4 billion, still relatively high for the recent standard, after being greatly reinforced on Wednesday by the expiration of options on the Ibovespa.

Among the stocks with the greatest weight on the B3, the financial sector was the villain – or protagonist – for the Ibovespa to reach the new mark, with the big banks once again in a negative block, with the exception of BB (BVMF:) (ON +0.93%).

In the session, the partial recovery in Vale (BVMF:) (ON +1.41%), which still accumulates losses of 3.08% in the week and 8.20% in the month, was the only significant counterpoint, insufficient to hold the small advance that the index sustained in the early afternoon. Petrobras (BVMF:), another heavyweight in the portfolio, failed to preserve the gains seen earlier and closed down 0.75% (ON, at the low of the day at closing) and 0.32% (PN).

At the top of the Ibovespa this Thursday, Cielo (BVMF:) (+2.67%), Eletrobras (BVMF:) (ON +2.15%), Minerva (BVMF:) (+1.53%) and Fleury (BVMF:) (+1.48%), with Via (BVMF:)(-6.15%), São Martinho (BVMF:) (-5.40%), Magazine Luiza (BVMF:) (-5. 05%) and Cyrela (BVMF:) (-4.25%) in the opposite corner.

Since Wednesday, external caution has been reinforced by the signals coming from the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy meeting (Fed, the US central bank), released in the afternoon.

“The minutes gave clues about the possibility of the interest rate in the United States going up again in September”, says Felipe Leão, specialist at Valor Investimentos. “Certain parts of the minutes were considered important, with some leaders considering inflation at a slightly high level, still unacceptable, and that more evidence is needed to believe that pressures on prices are losing strength. Which may require new interest rate increases. “, he adds.

In addition to fears related to the possibility of an additional increase in credit costs in the world’s largest economy, the market also remains attentive to China, especially due to the exposure that Brazil and B3 have to commodities, which already puts the outflow of foreign investment from the Exchange to almost BRL 8.5 billion in the month, considering data available up to the 15th.

As noted by another local market observer, the results in the second quarter were “good, but not excellent”, especially among banks, a sector that accounts for around 30% to 40% of the stock exchange – which pressures the performance of the Ibovespa and helps to understand the “bloodbath” that has been seen since the beginning of the month, adds the source.

In the United States, this Thursday’s highlight was the yields on 10-year US Treasury bonds, which reached the highest level in 15 years, with reflections on demand for risk assets worldwide, especially on the stock exchanges. New York, which closed the day down (-0.84%, -0.77%, -1.17%), points out André Luiz Rocha, variable income operator at Manchester Investimentos.

“The ‘yields’ thus reach the highest levels since last October, equivalent to those of 2007, when there was the great ‘subprime’ crisis, with a direct impact on the stock exchanges”, adds Lucas Carvalho, analyst at Toro Investimentos, referring to the global crisis that erupted then, 16 years ago, in the high-risk mortgage segment in the United States.

With even fewer internal catalysts than those available on Wednesday, investors continue to monitor external signals, which have guided business more than domestic news in recent sessions.

“Investors remain attentive to the Chinese corporate news, which highlighted the restructuring plan of the manager Zonghzi, which stopped remunerating several assets in recent days. In addition, the news is also being evaluated that Beijing should intensify intervention in the exchange rate in the next few days, seeking to alleviate the losses registered by the recently”, observes Guide Investimentos, in a note.

In the month, with the 5.71% drop accumulated so far by the Ibovespa, and an advance of 5.33% against the real, the Ibovespa is now down to 23,082.32 points, compared to the end of July when, in the US currency , the Ibovespa reached a level of 25,783.48 points. In 2023, in dollar terms, after reaching 20,100.65 points at the end of the first quarter, the Ibovespa reached 21,355.22 points at the close of May and, at the end of June, reached 24,654.87 points, thus reflecting not only the nominal advance of the B3 index that month, of 9%, but also the appreciation of the real against the dollar in the period.

A year ago, in US currency, the Ibovespa had closed July 2022 at 19,937.90 points, and in the following month, an August of recovery (in which it had advanced 6.16% in nominal terms), the index went to 21,056.01 points – just over 2,000 points below the level it is now in dollars.