2023-08-21 15:11:04
After the passage of the powerful Hurricane Hilary, reaching category 4 with a maximum sustained wind of 240 km/h crossing the Baja California peninsula towards the southwestern United States, causing flooding, landslides and catastrophic river overflows, a new tropical cyclone threat to Mexican territory.
As planned by the National Meteorological Service of the National Water Commission, this second half of August there will be more rainy periods with the threat of tropical cyclones and, this week, a system could enter over the northeastern states, with a second likely in the south-southeast region, in addition to active tropical waves.
According to the agency in charge of the climate in Mexico, the entry of a tropical system over Tamaulipas, Nuevo León and Coahuila is expected with effects from the afternoon of this Monday to the afternoon of Wednesday, Tuesday being the day of greatest attention or emergency. Disturbance 91L currently over the center of the Gulf of Mexico with a high probability of being a cyclone in the next 12 hours.
During the course of the morning, the center of the possible cyclone (depression or tropical storm) would be making landfall in the border area of these two states in a west-northwest direction over the north of Tamaulipas, Nuevo León and Coahuila during the course of the day . In the evening-night, the models suggest reaching northern Chihuahua as well, but as remnants.
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Against this background, heavy to very heavy rains (75 to 150 mm) are expected for the states of Coahuila, Nuevo León and Tamaulipas.
It would also cover the center and especially the north of Coahuila, where it could even be around 200 mm between Monclova to Juárez-Candela, while in Nuevo León it could be between Lampazos to Salinas, Bustamante, Cerralvo and surroundings. These amounts and areas may vary in the coming hours, so it is important to constantly check for updates.
As a result of these intense rains, flash floods, landslides and landslides are expected, as well as the swelling and overflow of rivers or streams. In urban areas, it is very probable that floods, in addition to dangerous currents, occur, so the population is recommended to follow the indications and evacuate if necessary.
CLIMATE IN MEXICO
For this Monday, tropical wave 24 will move over the Mexican southeast, in interaction with the entry of moisture from the Gulf of Mexico and the Caribbean Sea, it will produce heavy rains at very strong points in said regions.
On the other hand, the proximity of a zone of low pressure with a cyclonic probability over the northeast of the Gulf of Mexico will favor the entry of humidity, generating showers and heavy punctual rains in the northeast and east of Mexico, as well as very heavy rains in Tamaulipas. .
Likewise, the Mexican monsoon over the northwest of the country, in interaction with a low pressure channel that will extend over the north, west and center of the Mexican territory, will cause showers and heavy occasional rains in the mentioned regions.
The rains described above will be accompanied by electric shocks, gusts of wind and possible hail fall.
Tropical wave 23 has stopped affecting the national territory. Finally, the very hot environment will continue over the northwest, north, northeast, east and southeast of the Mexican Republic, as well as in the Yucatan Peninsula.
By Tuesday, the tropical cyclone in the Gulf of Mexico will move toward the northeast of the country, causing showers and heavy rains, electric shocks, and gusts of wind in Coahuila, Nuevo León, Tamaulipas, and San Luis Potosí.
Likewise, the Mexican monsoon will cause the probability of showers and heavy occasional rains with electric shocks and gusts of wind in the northwest of the national territory.
Finally, the ingress of moisture from the Pacific Ocean and the Gulf of Mexico will cause showers and heavy occasional rains accompanied by electric shocks and possible hail fall on entities in the west, center, and south of the Mexican Republic, including the Valley of Mexico.
RAIN FORECAST IN THE MEXICAN TERRITORY
Very heavy rains with intense points (75 to 150 mm): Coahuila, Nuevo León, Tamaulipas, Guerrero and Oaxaca.
Heavy rain with very strong spots (50 to 75 mm): Sonora, Chihuahua, Sinaloa, Michoacán, Veracruz, Tabasco and Chiapas.
Intervals of showers with heavy punctual rains (25 to 50 mm): Durango, San Luis Potosí, State of Mexico, Morelos, Puebla, Campeche, Yucatán and Quintana Roo.
Rainfall intervals (5 to 25 mm): Nayarit, Jalisco, Colima, Zacatecas, Guanajuato, Queretaro, Hidalgo, Tlaxcala and Mexico City.
Isolated showers (0.1 to 5 mm): Lower Southern California and Aguascalientes.
MINIMUM AND MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES FOR THE MEXICAN REPUBLIC
Maximum temperatures from 35 to 40 °C: Baja California, Baja California Sur, Sonora, Sinaloa, Nayarit, Jalisco, Colima, Michoacan, Guerrero, Oaxaca, Chiapas, Chihuahua, Durango, Coahuila, Nuevo Leon, Tamaulipas, San Luis Potosí, Veracruz (north), Tabasco, Campeche, Yucatan and Quintana Roo.
Maximum temperatures from 30 to 35 °C: Hidalgo (north), Puebla (north and southwest) and Morelos.
Minimum temperatures from 0 to 5 °C: mountainous areas of Hidalgo, State of Mexico, Tlaxcala and Puebla.
WIND FORECAST FOR THE MEXICAN TERRITORY
Winds with gusts of 60 to 80 km/h: Oaxaca (Tehuantepec Isthmus); with possible tornadoes: Chihuahua, Coahuila, New Leon and Tamaulipas.
Winds with gusts of 40 to 60 km/hy possible tornadoes: Sonora, Durango, Zacatecas and San Luis Potosí.
WHAT IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE?
A tropical cyclone is a meteorological phenomenon characterized by a low pressure system in the atmosphere that forms over warm ocean waters. These systems are known as tropical cyclones because they develop mainly in tropical and subtropical regions. Tropical cyclones are known by different names in different parts of the world:
Hurricane: This is the term used in the North Atlantic and northeastern eastern Pacific.
Typhoon: Used in the Pacific Northwest, especially in the East Asia region.
Cyclone: This term is used in the Indian Ocean and Southwest Pacific.
Tropical cyclone: It is a more general term that is used in the southern Indian Ocean and in the southwestern Pacific.
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Tropical cyclones are extremely powerful weather systems and can cause a variety of severe weather conditions, including high winds, torrential rains, flooding, and storm surge (extremely high waves). These systems form when ocean waters are warm enough to provide the energy needed to power the cyclone, and they require specific atmospheric conditions for their development.
Tropical cyclones go through different stages of development, beginning as tropical depressions, then becoming tropical storms, and finally, if conditions are right, reaching the category of hurricane, typhoon or cyclone, depending on the region. The intensity of a tropical cyclone is typically measured on the Saffir-Simpson Wind Scale (for hurricanes) or other similar scales in other regions, which classify cyclones into different categories based on their wind speed.
Tropical cyclones can be dangerous and destructive, and disaster management and meteorological authorities constantly monitor their development and track to issue warnings and take precautionary measures when they threaten populated areas.
WHAT TO DO IN CASE OF HEAVY RAIN?
In the event of heavy rain, it is important to take precautionary measures to protect your safety and that of your loved ones, as well as to minimize the risks of flooding or other dangers related to heavy rain. Here are some tips on what to do during heavy rain:
Stay informed: Follow weather forecasts and warnings issued by local authorities. This will help you to be prepared and take appropriate action.
Stay in a safe place: If possible, stay at home or in a safe place until conditions improve. Avoid going outside during heavy rain, especially if there is flooding in your area.
Prepare emergency supplies: Keep essential supplies like drinking water, non-perishable food, flashlights, batteries, a first aid kit, and other basic supplies on hand in case you lose access to them due to flooding or power outages.
Keep Escape Routes Clear: If you live in an area prone to flooding, have an evacuation plan in place and make sure escape routes are clear and accessible.
Avoid Driving in Floods: Never attempt to drive through flooded streets. Floodwater can be much deeper than it appears and can easily wash away vehicles. Instead, wait until the water recedes or find an alternate route.
Avoid crossing flooded bridges: Bridges are especially dangerous places during heavy rains, as they can collapse or be washed away. Avoid crossing them until the authorities indicate that they are safe.
Don’t walk or swim in floodwaters: Floodwaters can be treacherous and contain debris or strong currents that pose serious hazards. Avoid walking or swimming in these waters.
Turn off electricity and gas in case of flood: If water threatens to flood your home, turn off electricity and gas to avoid fire or electrocution hazards.
Communicate your situation: If you find yourself in an emergency situation during heavy rain, call the emergency authorities for help. If you are in danger, follow their instructions.
Help others: If it is safe to do so, provide help to people who may need assistance during heavy rain, such as the elderly or people with limited mobility.
Remember that safety comes first during extreme weather events like heavy rain. Always follow the recommendations of local authorities and prepare in advance to minimize risks.
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