2023-08-24 17:51:30
► What do we know about the death of Yevgueni Prigojine?
At 5:20 p.m. on Wednesday, walkers heard two explosions in the sky before seeing the Embraer Legacy private jet crash into the Tver region, north of Moscow. The crash caused a fire, destroying the wreckage and burning the bodies of the ten people on board.
The Russian air authorities publish in the hours that follow the names of the victims from the list of registered passengers, among them the head of Wagner, Evgueni Prigojine, and Dmitry Outkin, the real founder of this group of mercenaries. Another passenger, Valery Chekalov, was a director of Concord, a company founded by Prigozhin. Given the state of degradation of the bodies, the investigators announce a DNA expertise.
From the first hours that followed the announcement of the death of the man of the base works of Vladimir Putin, the track of the accident seemed not very credible in Russia and abroad. A violent dispute opposed the victim to the Kremlin since his aborted revolt of June 23.
Most of the experts quoted by the Russian media evoke an explosion on board the device or the firing of an anti-aircraft missile. As proof, the dislocation of the plane in flight, the dispersion of debris on the ground and the numerous perforations observed on the wreckage, which recall the impact of a projectile.
► What had become of the Prigojine galaxy since its mutiny?
Accused of ” treason “ by Putin in June for fomenting a mutiny against the defense minister and the army chief of staff, Yevgueni Prigojine had benefited from a strange leniency over the past two months. He had made several round trips between Belarus, Saint Petersburg and the Kremlin, opening his address book during the Russia-Africa forum, which took place in Saint Petersburg in July.
At the same time, he was trying to save his empire built over three decades. The businessman was at the head of many companies in Russia and abroad in finance, construction, the media, mining or forestry, not to mention collective catering with Russian barracks.
In the wake of the rebellion, the Russian state attacked its media holding company, starting with banning the flagship Ria Fan from the networks. This press agency, which specializes in fake news, supplied dozens of the group’s sites in Russia, while producing content for African countries. According to Russian media, the oligarch Yuri Kovaltchouk, very close to Putin, is approached to take over part of the activities of the holding company.
Wagner’s performances also included influence missions, mainly in Africa, aimed at discrediting opponents and Western countries, through his media and fake social media accounts. “This civilian branch of Wagner’s operations continued to operate in the aftermath of the mutinynotes Maxime Audinet, researcher at the Institute for Strategic Research of the Military School. Lhe Central African media Lengo Songo, financed by Wagner, published photos of demonstrators hostile to France yesterday. The “influence” activity of the Prigozhin galaxy brings huge benefits to Russia. »
Wagner’s military branch ceased all activity in Ukraine, where its men returned tanks, planes and artillery to the regular army. About 3,000 mercenaries have settled in Belarus while waiting to find a new destination…
In his last video, Monday August 21, Prigojine was filmed in a desert presented as African where he called for volunteers to come and join him to return “Russia even greater on all continents and Africa even freer”. It was also his first appearance on camera since his failed rebellion in June, showing the place of the African continent in the pursuit of its business.
Since then, the activities attributed to Wagner on the African continent have not been interrupted. The head of Russian diplomacy, Sergei Lavrov, himself declared on June 26 that the paramilitaries would continue their operations in Mali and the Central African Republic.
In fact, Wagner continued to ensure the security of the local regimes there, to participate in joint operations with the national armies, to exploit the mineral resources and to control the trafficking routes. In the Central African Republic, however, we observed the departure of many Wagner mercenaries in July: between 150 and 400 depending on the source, without knowing the reason.
► What future for the Wagner group in Africa?
The Wagner model should continue, although it is too early to know if the group will keep its name and its current form or if it will be replaced by a comparable structure. After winning his showdown with Prigojine, Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu would like to highlight the private groups Convoy and Redut, two mercenary organizations under the control of the ministry – and more particularly of military intelligence for the second.
“Prigozhin was a actor capable of freeing himself from bureaucratic heaviness, which has made his success in Africarecalls Maxime Audinet. The desire of the Ministry of Defense is also to create private military structures in order to maintain this flexibility. » But Moscow will have to rely on the Wagner networks firmly established on the African continent and on the officers who have remained loyal to their former leader.
For specialist Thierry Vircoulon, the disappearance of Prigojine should not change the situation in the Central African Republic and Mali. On the other hand, it could mark a setback. «We understand on the spot that to appeal to the Russians is to become dependent on the power struggles in Moscow”, he judges. But it will benefit the alternative actors of the Western powers, “like China, Turkey and the Gulf countries”, adds Thierry Vircoulon. Finally, for the Nigerien putschists, the death of Prigojine makes very hypothetical the deployment of Wagner to defend them in the event of a military intervention by the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS). A point that did not escape the local military responsible for planning this operation.
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Wagner, invading mercenaries
in May 2014, the paramilitary group is founded by businessman Evgueni Prigojine, a close associate of Vladimir Putin, and Dmitri Outkine, a former Russian intelligence agent. The group made its debut in Ukraine (in Donbass and Crimea).
HAS from 2015Wagner’s mercenaries operate in Syria as “special forces” on the ground alongside the Kremlin army.
in 2018Wagner landed in the Central African Republic, participated in the training of the army and set up bases in the country, particularly in areas rich in diamonds.
In MaliWagner took advantage of the void left by the withdrawal of French troops decided in June 2021. His mercenaries were established in the country from December.
From February 2022Wagner reinforced his presence on the Ukrainian front and notably led the offensive on the locality of Bakhmout.
In June 2023his boss, Evgueni Prigojine, briefly went into open rebellion against the Russian military hierarchy.
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