Tracking Tropical Storm Idalia’s Path and Potential Impact on Florida

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Two storms were intensifying Monday morning as the Atlantic hurricane season was getting into full swing. Tropical Storm Idalia was off the coast of Cuba on a potential track to come ashore as a major hurricane in the southern U.S., the National Hurricane Center said.

Florida Governor Ron DeSantis warned residents to prepare for “major impacts” on the Gulf coast. “We do expect Hurricane Idalia to be a major hurricane that will strike the state of Florida,” he said. At 8 a.m. EDT Monday, the storm was about 90 miles south of the western tip of Cuba with maximum sustained winds of 65 mph and moving north at 8 mph.

Idalia is forecast to become a hurricane later Monday and a “dangerous major hurricane over northeastern Gulf of Mexico by early Wednesday,” the center said, adding that it could reach Florida’s Gulf coast Wednesday as well. The center pointed out that “life-threatening storm surge and dangerous winds” from Idalia are “becoming increasingly likely for portions of Florida.”

Meanwhile, Hurricane Franklin strengthened into the first major hurricane of the Atlantic season. As of 8 a.m. EDT, it had 130 mph sustained winds, making it a powerful Category 4 storm. Franklin is expected to cause “life-threatening surf and rip current conditions” along the U.S. East Coast, with swells already affecting Bermuda.

Florida is particularly concerned about the storm surge from Idalia. Up to 11 feet of ocean water could surge on shore, raising fears of destructive flooding along the western coast. Tampa Bay has the potential for a 4-7 foot storm surge, including downtown Tampa at the river walk. Large parts of the western coast of Florida are at risk of seawater surging onto land and flooding communities. Florida emergency officials have urged residents to keep their vehicle gas tanks at least half-full in case of evacuation.

Florida has already mobilized 1,100 National Guard members and has high-water vehicles and aircraft on standby for rescue and recovery efforts. Thirty-three Florida counties are under a state of emergency. The U.S. East Coast has been spared from cyclones so far this year, but the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration recently stated that the 2023 hurricane season would be far busier than initially forecast, partly due to extremely warm ocean temperatures.

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