Title: New Tool Uses Seismic Detections to Document Russian Attacks in Ukraine
Subtitle: Researchers Develop a Novel Technique to Track Russian Bombardments During the War in Ukraine
Date: [Date]
By The New York Times
The explosions came one after another, a relentless series of bombings that echoed across Kyiv in the first weeks of the war. Residents at the center of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine were forced underground into makeshift shelters. While the fight for Ukraine’s capital is well known, researchers have developed a new tool to systematically document Russian attacks by using one of the most universal elements of the battlefield: the explosions that shook the earth.
Seismic waves were generated when Russia fired artillery, airstrikes, and missiles across northern Ukraine. For the first time, researchers in Norway and Ukraine studied data from dozens of earthquake sensors around Kyiv, estimating the position and strength of each explosion to see the full extent of the Russian barrage.
“It’s a way of finding out what’s happened which doesn’t involve anecdotal reports,” said Ben Dando, a seismologist at NORSAR, an independent research foundation in Norway. “It’s verifiable data that’s showing what happened where.”
The seismic record, however, has its limitations. Attacks farther from the sensors are most likely to be missed, and a few explosions may have been set off by Ukraine. Additionally, Kyiv’s unique geology, built on wetlands and floodplains, deadens signals from explosions. However, seismic detections can track blasts at any time, picking up hundreds of attacks that were not previously reported, unlike traditional war reporting that has a selective focus.
One well-known attack that illustrates how the detection works is the explosion detected at the Hostomel airport outside Kyiv. Satellite imagery from the same day showed smoke billowing out of one of the hangars. The force from the explosion sent seismic waves toward two dozen nearby sensors, the equivalent of a tiny 0.2-magnitude earthquake. This bombing was one of more than a thousand detected explosions during a constant, around-the-clock barrage during the first five weeks of the war.
As Russia’s attempt to capture Kyiv failed and its troops withdrew from northern Ukraine in early April, the rate of bombardments dropped. However, Russia continued to bomb civilian infrastructure, hitting the Malyn train station on May 20 and injuring three people. The researchers said that they picked up three separate explosions from the attack.
Militaries have long used remote sensing techniques to detect missile launches, bombings, and other details of conflict. However, their records are largely kept secret, and public research on seismic detections of conventional weaponry is lacking. Using the same technique in future conflicts could help document wartime violations of human rights and guide post-war cleanup efforts, as areas that experience large numbers of blasts inevitably contain unexploded munitions.
While this approach for using seismic waves to monitor wars has limitations, researchers believe that more research is needed to develop it into an easily deployable solution. Regardless, the progress made so far is promising and paves the way for uncovering intentional attacks on civilians, potentially deterring perpetrators.
The study conducted by the researchers has been published in the journal Nature.
Source: Dando et al, Nature