the United States between support and doubts in the face of the kyiv counter-offensive

2023-09-01 05:24:57
US President Joe Biden and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky at the NATO summit in Vilnius, Lithuania, July 12, 2023. PAUL ELLIS / AP

One of the stark contrasts between the Biden administration and the previous one, that of Donald Trump, is in its disciplined communication. For two and a half years, uncontrolled leaks have been rare and anonymous remarks often coordinated in high places, to get messages across. The succession since early August of articles in the American press purporting to reflect the disappointment and criticism of officials over the Ukrainian counter-offensive against the Russian army has been all the more surprising.

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Divergence between civilians and military? The Biden administration is sticking to its firm line of support for Kyiv, despite the likely prospect of a third year of conflict. The US presidential election in November 2024 is already looming and generating understandable nervousness. Winter is expected to slow or halt the Ukrainian push south, despite recent advances around the villages of Robotyne and Verbove and the breaching of the first Russian line of defence. The risk of a long accordion conflict, with pushes in both directions, seems high. Some experts do not rule out the hypothesis of a vast Russian offensive towards the Kharkiv region, taken over by the Ukrainians in 2022.

“The Ukrainians are currently facing one of the most complex defensive networks we have seen in decades, recalls Dara Massicot, expert at the Rand think tank, close to defense circles. The US military doesn’t have much experience dealing with this, without air superiority. » On August 22, National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan invited commentators to a certain “level of humility” in the assessment of Ukrainian operations. Indeed, the American army has no recent experience of a similar theater of operations, with trenches and reinforced defenses, dug by a regular enemy army provided. The counter-insurgency model – if one can speak of a model, in view of the long-term results – applied in Afghanistan and Iraq is of no use here.

43 billion dollars to Ukraine

Insisting on the “dynamic” of such a conflict, Jack Sullivan refused to speak of an impasse. The adviser recalled that the maneuvers in progress were the responsibility of “sovereign decisions” of Ukraine, thus ruling out the idea of ​​a form of co-production, which would associate the Biden administration with the absence of massive reconquests. The national security adviser wants to believe in the durability of the American commitment, despite the growing resistance in Congress, in particular among the elected Trumpists in the House of Representatives. “Even though there are dissenting voices on the other side, we believe that deep down there is still a strong bipartisan base of support for our Ukraine policy and for supporting and defending Ukraine. »

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