Pressure Mounts on Guatemala’s Election Winner as US Warns of Threats to Democracy
Guatemala’s recently elected President, Bernardo Arévalo, is facing increasing pressure from politicians and prosecutors seeking to undermine his ability to assume office. This has prompted the United States government to sound the alarm over the risks to the country’s democracy.
Arévalo, a centre-left anti-corruption outsider, won the presidential election last month with a promise to clean up politics in Guatemala. However, his run-off opponent has refused to recognize his victory, and Arévalo himself has received death threats. In addition, his political party, Movimiento Semilla (Seed Movement), has been suspended amidst a series of legal challenges.
Arévalo denounced these acts of “illegal political persecution” and stated that they are refusing to accept the will of the Guatemalan people for change and an end to corruption and impunity in the country.
Despite winning 58% of the run-off vote, Arévalo’s opponents from the National Unity of Hope (UNE) party have claimed “irregularities” in the ballot. However, international observers have found no evidence of vote-rigging.
The moves against Arévalo and his party are aimed at preventing them from assuming office in January, which experts warn could amount to a “soft coup d’état.”
The US government has congratulated Arévalo on his victory twice, and this week, Secretary of State Antony Blinken condemned the “anti-democratic” actions aimed at intimidating election authorities and undermining Guatemala’s democracy.
Guatemala’s democracy has weakened since the previous government shut down a UN-backed anti-corruption commission in 2019. Prosecutors have since targeted journalists and former officials. Rafael Curruchiche, head of the Special Prosecutor Against Impunity (FECI) unit, has been accused of obstructing investigations and raising spurious cases. Prosecutors pursued a case against Movimiento Semilla over alleged fake signatures in registration documents, leading to the temporary suspension of the party.
The suspension has raised concerns about the recognition of Semilla’s elected representatives in Congress, which is controlled by parties opposing Semilla. If the suspension is upheld, Semilla’s lawmakers would have to operate as independents, potentially limiting their ability to serve on crucial committees.
Guatemala’s civil society activists argue that the country, known for its high levels of inequality and a history of civil war, is governed by an informal “pact of the corrupt” among political, business, and military elites. Organized crime and drug trafficking groups are also said to interfere in politics.
The Inter-American Commission on Human Rights (IACHR) has expressed concerns over specific threats against Arévalo and his vice president-elect, Karin Herrera. While President Alejandro Giammattei has promised an orderly transition, a radical right-wing group continues to exert pressure on Arévalo and his supporters.
The outcome of these pressures remains uncertain, but it is clear that the US and other international actors are closely monitoring the situation and urging the protection of democracy in Guatemala.