2023-09-04 03:04:15
The PSOE has been wearing down the position of Alberto Núñez Feijóo for weeks by presenting himself to the investiture without having enough support tied to overcome it. They deliberately ignore that Pedro Sánchez did the same in 2016 to start the electoral repetition clock, after Mariano Rajoy declined the King’s commission. “It is a waste of time for the Spaniards”, the official party and government spokesmen insist over and over again before the “blank month” of negotiations of the PP candidate. The calendar that Feijóo had ahead of him was devilish, in any case: either he submitted to a debate this week, conveying the feeling that his was a mere formality investiture, or he had to wait more than a month to do so, because any another intermediate date, before September 26 and 27, would automatically place the date of the electoral repetition on Christmas dates (December 24, 31 or January 7). With this wide time frame, the socialists are not going to sit idly by.
Although initially, after closing the agreement of the Congress Table, Sánchez was in a position to present himself for an inauguration “soon”; later he decided to avoid the institutional clash and not compromise Zarzuela, bidding to cut off Feijóo, as the most voted force. At that time, the PSOE was not in a position to guarantee support greater than the 172 votes of the popular candidate, although it did have the expectation of reissuing the 178 that endorsed Francina Armengol. In the socialist machine room they pondered the opportunity that giving way to Feijóo represented for their interests and even giving him all the time he needed to, in parallel, continue working on his own arithmetic without the pressure of the media spotlight or the prominence of having the royal commission. A focus that, they believe, will end up “scorching” the PP candidate given his inability to add a sufficient number of supporters to pass the parliamentary process.
“There is no time to lose,” say socialist sources, who are already working for an “express” investiture for Sánchez, once Feijóo’s attempt fails. Everything will depend, of course, on the progress and future of the negotiations with ERC and Junts, but Moncloa’s expectation is that the president will recover his full powers in the month of October. More symbolic dates for the independence movement have passed, such as the Diada of 11 September or the anniversary of the 1-O referendum, the fit will be sought among other outstanding events of that month with time for a new round of consultations with the King. The week of October 16 seems like the propitious one to locate the debate. Before, the acting president will act as host of the double summit in Granada, on October 5 and 6, in which the meeting of the European Political Community will gather on the one hand and, on the other, the informal European Council. The following week, Hispanic Day is celebrated with all the liturgy that goes with it, a military parade and subsequent reception at the Royal Palace, which is why it also seems incompatible with the investiture debate.
That Sánchez can finish the month of October as president also has an institutional key reading. On October 31, the Princess of Asturias will come of age and the act of oath of the Constitution that must be held in the Cortes is pending. Based on the only precedent that exists, that of her father, the idea would be to hold the ceremony that day, although there is no legal obligation to do so, but the fact that a government with full powers already existed would clear up any impediment.
The battle that the PSOE has undertaken to fight the review of the null votes of the foreign vote in the Community of Madrid, in which they lost a deputy in favor of the PP, shows how tight the arithmetic that Sánchez must put together. One more seat would make Junts go from the necessary positive vote to his abstention being sufficient. This correlation of forces can also be achieved if the Socialists attract the Canarian Coalition to the majority of the investiture. In case of not doing so, Sánchez would be invested with an absolute majority, by 178 votes (11 more than in 2020), the same ones that made Armengol president of Congress. In this way, the socialist leader would attend the European Council on October 26 and 27 in Brussels with full functions.
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