ASEAN Summit 2021: Divisive Issues of Myanmar, South China Sea, and US-China Rivalry Take Center Stage

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Leaders Convene for ASEAN Summit in Jakarta Amidst Divisive Issues

JAKARTA, Indonesia (AP) — Southeast Asian leaders are gathering in Jakarta for the final summit of the year, facing a range of contentious issues with no immediate solutions in sight. President Joko Widodo of Indonesia will host the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) meetings, where concerns over the ongoing civil strife in Myanmar, tensions in the disputed South China Sea, and the United States-China rivalry are expected to dominate discussions.

The summit, taking place under tight security, will open on Tuesday. The absence of U.S. President Joe Biden, who usually attends ASEAN summits, adds to the somber atmosphere surrounding the traditional display of unity and group handshakes among the 10 member states.

Ahead of the leaders’ meetings, ASEAN foreign ministers gathered on Monday to finalize the agenda. Indonesian Foreign Minister Retno Marsudi acknowledged the challenges faced by the region, including the Myanmar crisis, and stressed the importance of the bloc overcoming these difficulties. The five-point plan formulated by ASEAN leaders in 2021 to help restore normalcy in Myanmar will be reviewed during the summit.

After the discussions on Tuesday, ASEAN heads of state will meet with their Asian and Western counterparts from Wednesday to Thursday, providing an opportunity for broader engagements on issues such as free trade, climate change, and global security. However, the rivalries between the U.S., China, and their allies are also expected to play out during the summit.

Chinese Premier Li Qiang will be in attendance, along with U.S. Vice President Kamala Harris, who will replace President Biden at the event. The meeting between Li and Harris, as well as the presence of Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov, underscores the geopolitical significance of the summit beyond ASEAN.

While Biden’s decision to skip the ASEAN summit has raised concerns, the U.S. administration emphasized its ongoing commitment to the Indo-Pacific region. John Kirby, a national security spokesperson, stated that the U.S. engagement with Southeast Asia remains a priority and highlighted previous ASEAN-related events attended by the president.

However, some experts have expressed disappointment over Biden’s absence, highlighting broader concerns about ASEAN’s declining relevance in the face of pressing challenges. Marty Natalegawa, a former foreign minister of Indonesia, lamented that ASEAN’s diminishing prominence was more consequential than Biden’s non-appearance. He argued that the lack of engagement by ASEAN was pushing member states to seek security alliances either with the U.S. or China.

ASEAN’s notable diversities among its member states, including differences in political systems and ideologies, have limited the bloc’s ability to take strong actions in response to human rights violations and regional conflicts. Founded during the Cold War in 1967, ASEAN adheres to a principle of non-interference in domestic affairs and takes decisions by consensus. These factors have contributed to criticisms of the bloc’s effectiveness in addressing regional challenges.

The ongoing civil strife in Myanmar and the South China Sea disputes are expected to overshadow discussions during the summit. Despite Indonesia’s efforts to shift the focus towards economic cooperation and growth, geopolitical and security concerns continue to persist, creating diplomatic tensions among member states.

The European Union has expressed concerns about its relations with ASEAN if it has to engage with Myanmar’s military-led government in a leadership role. As a response, Myanmar’s government has indicated that it may not be able to chair ASEAN as scheduled in 2026. ASEAN leaders will need to decide on a replacement host for that year during the Jakarta summit.

The inability of ASEAN to effectively address the Myanmar crisis and its silence on the recent Chinese coast guard aggression in the South China Sea have raised questions about the bloc’s role in regional diplomacy. Member states have increasingly sought support and security assurances from either the U.S. or China, further undermining ASEAN’s centrality.

As ASEAN grapples with these critical challenges, there have been discussions among member states to adopt new rules that would allow decision-making even in the absence of consensus. This reform is seen as crucial to enhance ASEAN’s ability to respond swiftly to crises and prevent them from escalating into further disasters.

The credibility of ASEAN is at stake as the Myanmar crisis persists. While the bloc may lack a conflict-resolution mechanism, analysts argue that it should leverage its influence and connections to help address domestic challenges. Delaying action only diminishes the opportunities to find meaningful solutions in a rapidly changing regional landscape.

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Associated Press journalists Jim Gomez, Andi Jatmiko, and Fadlan Syam in Jakarta, Indonesia, and Christopher Megerian in Washington contributed to this report.

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