Title: Niger’s Military Takeover Puts Biden Administration in a Diplomatic Bind
Subtitle: Biden administration officials navigate policy implications as they carefully dance around the word “coup” in response to Niger’s ongoing political crisis
Date: [Insert Date]
For over a month, Niger’s democratically elected President Mohamed Bazoum has been confined to his own home in the capital city of Niamey, while power remains in the hands of camouflage-clad generals who seized control. These military leaders have even threatened to put Bazoum on trial and execute him if foreign intervention is pursued. The seizure of power is widely regarded as a coup, but the Biden administration has avoided using the term due to its major policy implications.
Under U.S. law, the United States must suspend all economic and military aid to any government installed by a military coup until democracy is restored in that country. However, U.S. officials are concerned that such a move could diminish America’s influence over Niger’s future, compromise military operations against regional militants, invite Russian influence, and exacerbate the already dire humanitarian situation in one of the world’s poorest countries.
To date, the Biden administration has already paused most U.S. aid to Niger and is evaluating its democratic and security goals for the country through diplomacy. The State Department’s legal office would be responsible for making a formal determination with long-term policy consequences.
Many experts and pro-democracy advocates argue that the Biden administration should forcefully and formally declare the events in Niger a coup. The administration’s promotion of democracy as a centerpiece of its foreign policy agenda, particularly in Africa, further underscores the significance of this decision. Niger, a U.S. ally, stands to lose hundreds of millions of dollars in American funding should the coup be officially recognized.
Additionally, severing ties with Niger could create an opportunity for Russia, which has been increasing its presence in Africa in recent years, much to the concern of U.S. officials. Furthermore, closing U.S. military bases in Niger dedicated to fighting extremist groups like Boko Haram and the Islamic State would be another consequence of a formal coup determination. While current law does not mandate the closure of such bases under such a determination, the pressure to do so would intensify.
The Biden administration initially refrained from making an immediate declaration to allow for the possibility of President Bazoum’s release and the restoration of democratic order. However, the situation has only deteriorated, with military leaders refusing negotiations and intensifying their grip on power.
As the debate over the designation of a coup continues, experts argue that the need to prioritize support for democracy should take precedence over other national security considerations. They highlight the existence of legislation granting the Secretary of State the power to issue waivers for aid continuation on national security grounds, even in cases where a coup has been declared.
The recent wave of coups across Africa, including one in Gabon, underscores the urgency of reassessing U.S. and Western foreign policies, according to analysts. They suggest that an overemphasis on security concerns has allowed military leaders to exploit assistance from Western countries.
In navigating this diplomatic bind, the Biden administration faces complex considerations that extend beyond the immediate crisis in Niger. While political and human rights observers call for a clear stance on the events unfolding in the country, the ultimate decision lies with the officials in Washington, who must balance their commitment to democracy with broader strategic interests in the region.