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The surge in the number of new infections in Corona in Israel and around the world sharpens the need to effectively identify patients who are at risk of deterioration, already at the beginning of the disease, in order to target the new life-saving treatments, including Paxlobid which arrived in Israel this week. At the National Institutes of Health Research Institute, we have built a new model, a sort of Corona calculator, which is based on more than 100,000 verified patients since the onset of the epidemic.
Using analysis of the data with advanced research methods, the researchers found that a model based solely on age, gender, number of vaccines received, weight-to-height ratio (BMI), hemoglobin A1C, renal function level, presence of hypertension, lung or malignant disease, achieves accuracy Unusual in predicting the chance of hospitalization or death. In this way, the calculator actually makes it possible to locate with impressive accuracy who are the corona patients who are in danger of deterioration, and this already at the time of infection.
The director of Leumit’s research institute, Dr. Ariel Yehuda Israel, explains: “The quality of the model, which is measured by the area under the curve (AUC) in cross-validation, found impressive values of 0.889 for the chance of hospitalization and 0.967 for the chance of mortality. Surprisingly, 80% of disease events that result in the death of a patient with a specificity of 94.9% can be identified (false positive rate = 5.1%); And 90% of events with a specificity of 91.2% (false positive rate = 8.8%).
“The regression on which the model is based makes it possible to quantify the effect of vaccine doses, including the third booster dose on the chance of hospitalization and mortality. It was found that after adjusting for risk factors, the third vaccine reduces the risk of hospitalization by 66% and death by 78%. As it significantly reduces the risk of getting infected, the overall effect of the vaccine is even higher than this relationship. “
In addition, in contrast to the fading of the vaccine that the researchers observed in the context of the chance of infection, and which the researchers of the Leumit Research Institute published in the prestigious journal BMJ; For patients who have already been infected, it has not been found that the time that has elapsed since the vaccine significantly increases the risks of hospitalization or mortality, and the number of vaccine doses received is the factor that determines the reduction in risk.