2023-09-07 12:00:00
GEOPOLITICS – Will G20 leaders come to an agreement this weekend on the many crises dividing the bloc? Gathered on September 9 and 10 in New Delhi, India, the 19 member states of the Group of Twenty, the main forum for international economic cooperation, with the European Union, will have to overcome their differences on the war in Ukraine, climate change and the ‘Mondial economy. In the absence of Russian Presidents Vladimir Putin and Chinese President Xi Jinping, Joe Biden will try to strengthen his alliances.
Subject to an arrest warrant from the International Criminal Court for “war crimes”, charges “null and void” according to the Kremlin, Vladimir Putin will not visit New Delhi. It is his Minister of Foreign Affairs, Sergei Lavrov, who replaces him once again, two weeks after representing Russia at the last BRICS-11 summit (a group made up of Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa and six other states since August, editor’s note).
lack of weight
Xi Jinping will not be there either. But his absence is questionable. This G20 summit comes at a time when relations between the host country, India, and China are strained. Their common Himalayan border, the course of which is disputed, has recently been the scene of numerous incidents between the armies of these two nuclear powers. On Monday, large-scale military exercises began in northern India. The operation, “an annual training exercise” according to New Delhi, will last 11 days and continue through the G20 summit.
Beijing also criticizes its neighbor for belonging to the “Quad”, a security partnership with Australia, Japan and above all, the United States. China, whose trade and geopolitical relations with Washington are just as tense due to the Taiwan question and the numerous American sanctions, considers this quadrilateral alliance as an attempt to counter its influence.
Xi Jinping, whose reasons for absence have not been communicated, will be replaced by his Prime Minister, Li Qiang, it has been confirmed.
For his part, US President Joe Biden, “disappointed“ by Xi Jinping’s decision, will be present at the G20 summit, which represents around 85% of the world economy. He will discuss, according to the White House, “of a series of joint efforts to tackle global problems”including climate change and “alleviation of the economic and social consequences of the war waged by Russia in Ukraine”.
But the absence of his two Russian and Chinese counterparts is a stain and even removes the chances of reaching an agreement on these issues. Russia is one of the protagonists of the war in Ukraine and China, the world’s second largest economy, is considered one of the most polluting countries on the planet, alongside India. Beijing and New Delhi reject criticism by putting Western countries, the cradles of the Industrial Revolution two centuries ago, ahead of their “historical responsibility” in the climate crisis.
“Without China’s participation, questions may not emerge or come to a logical conclusion”, confirms Happymon Jacob, professor of political science at the Indian university Jawaharlal Nehru. The war in Ukraine also jeopardizes the primary vocation of the Group of Twenty, namely economic cooperation. “Until Russia ends this war, it can never be business as usual”says Wolfgang Buechner, spokesman for the German government.
India, the self-proclaimed leader of the “Sud Global”
At a March meeting of G20 foreign ministers in the Indian capital, China and Russia refused to sign the final declaration demanding “a withdrawal of Russian forces from Ukraine”.
For the host country, this summit is an opportunity to establish itself as a leading global player. India, which is now part of the closed circle of major space powers since the moon landing of its Chandrayaan-3 probe in August, defines itself as the leader of the “Global South”. Founding country of the BRICS, New Delhi, led by its Prime Minister Narendra Modi, is pushing to enlarge the G20 by hosting the African Union. In addition to wanting to serve as a “bridge” between developed and developing countries, the most populous state in the world also intends to take advantage of its membership in this group to reform international institutions.
As chair of the G20, India has recently stepped up efforts to convince member countries to overcome their disagreements. Vain attempts, like the meeting of energy ministers of the group in July, which did not lead to an agreement or a roadmap aimed at reducing the use of fossil fuels.
Any agreement on the climate issue also comes up against the reluctance of China and India, whose energy still depends on coal. Saudi Arabia and Russia, meanwhile, are resisting the move away from fossil fuels like oil so as not to undermine their economies.
Crises which divide this block and which are “far more difficult, more complicated and more worrying than they have been for a long time”according to Indian Foreign Minister S. Jaishankar.
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