Before the holiday, Ibovespa falls 1.15%, to 115.9 thousand points, with external caution By Estadão Content

2023-09-07 10:00:30

© Reuters. Before the holiday, Ibovespa falls 1.15%, to 115.9 thousand points, with external caution

The closed the interval that precedes the holiday of September 7th, accumulating three losses in the week, in a day of caution also abroad, especially New York, where the negative adjustment reached 1.06% () at the close of the session. This Wednesday, the B3 index (BVMF:) fluctuated from a high of 117,970.71 to a low of 115,983.53 towards the end of the day, almost identical to the close, still down 1.15%, at 115,985.34 points, with a turnover of R$ 20.4 billion. For the week, the Ibovespa has dropped 1.62% so far, limiting the month’s gain to 0.21%, after a promising opening in September, up 1.86% last Friday. In the year, the B3 index rose 5.70%.

As on Tuesday, with the US$ 90 per barrel mark retained this Wednesday, and now at the highest level since November 2022, Petrobras (BVMF:) managed to distance itself, albeit to a lesser extent, from the losses that spread through the shares with greater weight and liquidity on the B3 – highlight, this Wednesday, for the 1.59% decrease in Vale ON (BVMF:). Petrobras ON (BVMF:) and PN, in turn, rose 0.49% and 0.45%, respectively, this Wednesday.

The top of the Ibovespa was Braskem (BVMF:) (+5.39%), Via (+2.56%) and Yduqs (BVMF:) (+2.32%), while Vamos (-7.10%) , CVC (BVMF:) (-4.94%) and IRB (BVMF:) (-4.49%) led the opposite line. Among large banks, losses reached 1.39% (Bradesco (BVMF:) ON) at the close of the session.

According to a report by the Saudi press agency, the crown prince and prime minister of Saudi Arabia, Mohammad bin Salman, spoke this Wednesday by telephone with Russian president, Vladimir Putin, the day after the two countries confirmed a joint reduction in the supply in . In the call, according to the note, the leaders showed satisfaction and agreement with the effort to stabilize global energy markets. And, in the same link, additional efforts in this direction were emphasized.

At this Wednesday’s high, the Brent contract for November was traded at US$ 91 per barrel, on ICE, in London – at the close, it showed a high of 0.62% in the session, at US$ 90.60. Apart from oil, however, the day was one of risk aversion, with global investors still closely monitoring activity data in the United States, step by step, in order to anticipate what the Federal Reserve may still do with regard to the reference interest rate. Thus, at the maximum of this Wednesday, the yields were 4.30%.

“Outside, a very difficult market, with interest still rising, amid fears about a possible resumption of inflation. It is the main channel that has pushed the markets down, with oil up, which reinforces this tension”, he says. João Piccioni, an analyst at Empiricus Research, predicting that the Federal Reserve will need to be “tougher” at this month’s meeting. “The Brazilian stock exchange responds to this dynamic, with the yield curve becoming stressed, especially at the longer end, with more risk premium than was seen a few weeks ago”, adds the analyst, highlighting, at B3, a greater effect felt by assets with exposure to the domestic cycle.

“The market should stay in this dynamic until the clouds dissipate with the Fed’s meeting in the middle of the month. Until then, we won’t have any significant trigger”, observes Piccioni. A highlight of the afternoon’s agenda, the Beige Book, a summary compiled by the Federal Reserve on economic conditions in regional units, showed that activity in the country had only modest growth in most districts, in July and August. Employment growth, in both months, was also moderate, points out the document.

In the morning, the market had been surprised by the advance of the activity index (PMI) for the services sector, in the monthly metric of the Institute for Supply Management (ISM), referring to August, when it reached the highest level since February, now at 54.5, after reading 52.7 in July.

“Higher interest rates for longer than expected are worrying the market globally. Here, the limit imposed on interest on revolving credit, with the approval of Desenrola, affects the shares of large banks, which are down in the session. domestic fiscal uncertainty, and still strong activity data in the United States, explain the discomfort of investors today”, says Felipe Leão, specialist at Valor Investimentos. He highlights, on the other hand, the “oil rally”, which contributed to Petrobras giving some support to the Ibovespa, despite the loss of 116 thousand points at the close, on a very negative day for risk assets.

“Stronger than expected PMI in the United States, together with the highest oil since yesterday, with the Saudi decision to extend production cut until the end of the year, shows that inflationary pressure may continue, making it more difficult for central banks begin to ease monetary tightening”, says Rodrigo Moliterno, head of equities at Veedha Investimentos, adding that, in this context, global markets continued, this Wednesday, the movements of the previous day.