2023-09-08 02:41:39
From our correspondent in the United States,
Zone of turbulence for Joe Biden. The American president, who will participate in the G20 summit in India this weekend, before a visit to Vietnam, sees clouds gathering at home over his re-election campaign. 14 months before the presidential election of November 5, 2024, the bad polls which put him almost on par with Donald Trump and all the Republican candidates – and even clearly behind Nikki Haley – are not the real problem. A year is an eternity, especially in politics. But Americans’ doubts about the health of the economy and about an octogenarian outgoing judge considered too old to serve for another four years, risk handicapping him.
Three in four Americans consider Biden “too old”
The verdict is clear: three out of four Americans consider him “too old” to be president, according to a poll for the Wall Street Journal (pdf). The study was criticized because a former Donald Trump pollster participated in it, but it also involved an expert close to Democrats. The conclusion is anyway the same in a poll published by CNN Thursday: 76% of Americans believe Biden, who would be 86 by the end of 2028, is too old to complete a second term. And two thirds of those surveyed believe that his age may prevent him “from understanding the problems of the next generation”. Donald Trump is only three years younger than Biden, but with an energy that does not seem to weaken, only 47% of those surveyed consider him too old,
Two in three Democrats would prefer another candidate
While Joe Biden is, without a serious competitor, almost assured of winning the Democratic Party nomination, he does not arouse enthusiasm. Two in three Democrats would prefer another candidate, an increase of 13 points in six months. But no alternative really stands out. Kamala Harris remains unpopular, and Bernie Sanders is older than Biden.
Joe Biden weighed down by the economy
At only 39% of Americans satisfied, according to the CNN poll, Joe Biden is returning to his lowest points. According to RealClearPolitics average, his popularity rating remains a little higher, at 42%. But the American president finds himself in a red zone: in recent history, no incumbent has been re-elected with less than 40% favorable opinions. However, it is common for their curve to rise in the last twelve months. Barack Obama was for example increased from 42% to 51% in 2012.
Joe Biden seems especially weighed down by the American economy, with 58% of respondents believing that it has gotten worse since 2020. With an unemployment rate below 4%, the United States is not far from full employment. But many jobs are precarious, and wages have increased less quickly than inflation since Joe Biden took office. Even though a president has little influence over the price of gasoline, the gallon has almost doubled and rents have soared.
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This could weigh on “swing states” like Arizona or Pennsylvania, where an election is decided by a few tens of thousands of votes.
Significantly declining support among minorities
If confirmed, this is perhaps the most worrying trend for Joe Biden. In a duel against Donald Trump which sees the two candidates in a tie despite the quadruple indictment of the Republican (Biden 46%, Trump 47%), the Democratic candidate is only at 58% among minorities, against 34% in Donald Trump, according to the study commissioned by CNN. THE New York Times also noted a similar decline, with a gap that would have narrowed by nearly 20 points compared to the 2020 presidential election. Nate Cohn, of the Times, notes that Biden should rise by November 2024, with many undecided. But if Donald Trump continues to eat away at Latinos, as he did along the Rio Grande in 2020, Joe Biden would need to compensate elsewhere. It remains to be seen where.
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