2023-09-13 11:12:32
At a time when the Israeli solar industry is in decline, the Ministry of Energy announced an impressive interim solution – the allocation of 2,000 megawatts for the absorption of renewable energies throughout the country, which will open the large grid bottleneck that prevents the connection of new production facilities. The ministry did not provide any significant details about where the new 2,000 megabytes were found and how a change in “risk management” allowed them to be allocated.
The “Davar” inspection revealed that this is a professional and lengthy staff work that has been going on for about six months, and has not yet been completed, as only next week its results should be published in an orderly hearing of the Electricity Authority.
If the process is successful, the accelerated uptake of clean electricity production facilities will also help to keep the danger of electricity shortages away from Israel, until additional large power plants are built.
One of the people who pushed more than anyone to find new solutions to grid congestion is Amir Shavit, the chairman of the Electricity Authority, but the inspection work itself is largely the responsibility of the Nega Electricity System Management Company. Renewable and uncontrolled energy – mainly solar electricity and a small amount of electricity from wind turbines.
Traditionally, the calculations of the load on the power lines and transformers are based on controlled power plants – those that can reach full capacity according to instructions, at any hour of the day. In contrast, solar electricity installations and wind turbines actually occupy the network at a much lower rate than the facility’s formal allocation.
Therefore, as soon as the extreme cases of high loads that occur infrequently are isolated and solutions are produced for them, it is possible to routinely increase the allocation for the absorption of renewable energy facilities.
Another way to increase allocations is to examine existing facilities and to what extent they utilize their formal allocation. When a large enough gap is discovered, it is possible to make a reallocation while giving the possibility to take in more facilities.
Another important factor in the process is the understanding that storage allows electricity generated during the day to be transferred to the grid in the evening.
Green Haifa or Red Haifa
All these tests require conducting simulations of the new risk management. One of the changes is, for example, in the Haifa area, which is a center of consumption. Today, Haifa is considered “red” in the network, meaning it is blocked from receiving renewable energies, which can happen if the transmission network requires a lot more electricity to be taken from this area to another place.
However, on closer inspection Haifa can be turned from “red” to a little more “green”, if you consider that Haifa is also a significant consumption area, and the additional clean electricity will be absorbed into the regional demand for the most part and will require less free space in transmission lines to other places.
Thus, the multitude of reviews of the actual data and the adoption of “micro-tests” will make it possible to establish new clean electricity production facilities in the short term in the areas that are currently “red”.
A temporary solution to the shortage of production forces
In the last year and a half, there have been more severe constraints on the management of the electricity system in Israel – the demand for electricity will increase in 2022 at a rapid rate of 3.7% and a jump in the peak demand for electricity in summer and winter. The heat wave in June that resulted in a large supply of electricity also affected the periodic dates for the maintenance of the power plants in what is still considered a “transitional season” with low demands for electricity.
The barriers to the promotion of renewable energies in Israel actually prevented until today even the possibility that renewable energies alone would absorb the annual increase in demand for electricity, so that every year Israel is required to generate more electricity from polluting fuels. At the same time, there is no plan to build new power plants in the horizon. The new gas stations that the Electric Company is building in the Orot Rabin complex are the replacement of outdated and particularly polluting coal-fired units. At least until the year 2026, no new and additional large power station will be built, when the existing fleet of stations also includes many stations that are 30-50 years old, which in terms of cost and the air pollution they emit is better not to operate them at all.
Therefore, if within a few weeks the capacity to absorb 2,200 MW of solar production facilities in the existing network will be increased, this is a real solution not only for making electricity cleaner, but for the ability to provide a reliable response to the demand itself.
“Why only now?”
In recent years, solar entrepreneurs have been complaining about the regulation of renewables in Israel, which depends on allocations in the Electricity Authority’s tenders, on free network capacity in the Electric Company, and on tariffs that are not sufficiently profitable for dual-use electricity. The result is a second wave of decline among Israeli companies, with some simply stopping working in Israel, and turning to other, more stable markets. If this capacity had been added two years ago, the current crisis would in fact have been completely avoided.
In reality, the electricity sector has its own rhythm and it is not high. Only in 2018 did the state manage to harness all its wings and conduct focused negotiations with the employees of the Electric Company, on the reform that gradually enables the privatization of electricity production and the reduction of thousands of standards in the company. As part of the reform, the management of the system and its development planning were taken out of the company, to a new government company – Nega, which was established only two years ago. Nega was also required to become a “market maker” that purchases electricity from private producers and sells it to the electric company, which also required the establishment of an appropriate financial system and guarantees. These are processes that are difficult to carry out quickly, and they pushed forward the submission of the plan for the development of the network, as well as the current headquarters work, in order to clear additional space to accommodate production facilities with renewable energies.
Despite the different management and the different corporate structure, the employees of the Nega company are actually the same employees of the electric company, who could theoretically perform the same task without a prolonged corporate change. There are those in the Electricity Authority who believe that only after this separation was carried out did the “tune” of the employees of the two outgoing units begin to change, in a way that sees before their eyes the future benefit of the electricity sector, detached from the immediate interests of the Electricity Company.
Will private gas producers reconsider their course?
A significant part of the large sums paid by the purchasers of the company’s power plants stems from basic assumptions according to which the level of competition in the electricity sector will be low, there will be a shortage of efficient production forces, and this will allow the purchasers to routinely enjoy high electricity prices. This is one of the main reasons for Dalia Energy’s offer to purchase the Eshkol station for over NIS 12 billion – a proposal that fell through, after the capital market did not agree to lend Dalia the amount for the purchase, which led to legal complications regarding the future of the Eshkol station.
According to one scenario, if entrepreneurs in renewable energies manage to use an additional quota of 2,200 megawatts in a short time, this is a development that could disrupt the optimism of private gas electricity producers. This means that fewer gas power plants will work during the day in total and this share will decrease as more solar installations are added to the grid, except for special situations of winter storms or thick clouds. 2,200 megawatts of renewables, on an annual basis, is only equivalent to the addition of another normal power plant in the amount of 450-550 megawatts, but the production profile of solar installations will cause a more significant competitive effect – a large reduction in the demand for gas during the day in an increasing competition, when the dependence In gas production, you will focus on evening hours, with low competition.
There is also another possibility, which will benefit the private gas producers, in which the new capacity of Matahovat will not come at their expense, but at the expense of electricity production from coal at the power plants of the Electric Company. In this scenario, the additional solar production may also contribute to lowering the electricity rate for the public.
There are companies, for example like the Shikun Vabinui company, that can operate commercially both in the renewable energy sector and in the gas power plant sector, a combination that may grant it an “insurance certificate” in almost any future scenario.
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