Russia-USA, tension in the Geneva talks amidst the risk of invasion in Ukraine and chaos in Kazakhstan
Opposing warnings and threats, syndromes of encirclement and rhetorical battle, real or presumed color revolutions, dialectical and strategic games. And then, of course, there are the missiles and troops, such as the Russian ones that continue to increase on the border with Ukraine. Yet another great day of diplomacy between United States e Russia is likely to produce yet another “white nets” draw. With the difference, however, that in the meantime the clock continues to run and the risk is that we will reach a point of no return. For Ukraine, for Russia, for the United States, for everyone.
With the bugbear Kazakhstan which convinces more and more, it is not known whether in a real or only rhetorical way, Putin of Western plots in favor of colored revolutions aimed at gnawing the ground, or rather the sphere of influence, from under his feet. And that’s all he wants Putin: the recognition of a sphere of influence Russia, a buffer zone which in the last 30 years since the collapse of the Soviet Union has been undeniably reduced to a few tens of kilometers and the Belarusian bastion.
Global security talks between Washington and Moscow take place at Geneva, with two high-level delegations who, however, do not see the participation of heavyweights. After the video summit a few weeks ago, there is still no roadmap for a new physical meeting between Joe Biden and Vladimir Putin. To the two patrols in the Swiss city, led by the US Deputy Secretary of State Wendy Sherman and the Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov, the task at least of not breaking the thread of diplomacy which, after all, still remains semi-unscathed.
Biden can make concessions on missiles and exercises, not on NATO and Ukraine
Regardless of what will be declared at the final press conference, neither of the two actors would like to have a direct confrontation. Sources of the Pentagon footage from all the Western press has made it known that if Putin was really willing to negotiate, Biden would be willing to re-discuss the missiles in Europe and the exercises. But, at the same time, if the Russian president did not show a real desire for dialogue, the White House would be ready to even strong actions to isolate the Kremlin on the international stage. Starting with the ever-green economic and trade sanctions.
The same reasoning is made by Then, which at the same time calls for “reciprocity”. The Atlantic Alliance cannot and does not want to guarantee that it will not make progress towards the east. And it will not be able to do so on an official level. The real game is played on this. Putin needs a tangible result to be announced internally, so the implicit assurance that he is not enough the enlargement to Kiev it will not happen, at least in the short to medium term. He wants an explicit affirmation that NATO and the US do not want to concede in order not to lose another ally after what happened in Afghanistan last August.
Biden-Putin, Europe and Ukraine fear an underhand deal
It is clear that Ukraine is totally excluded from the negotiations, despite the talk of her future, but Biden cannot give the feeling of having “sold” her to Putin in exchange for a deal. The Kiev government tries to warn Europe and the United States and argues that Russia does not want to negotiate but only to impose its agenda. There would also be repercussions at the regional level, with Sweden e Finland who would be thinking of joining NATO precisely to guarantee themselves a more stable umbrella of protection.
Putin, for his part, is increasingly suspicious. Or at least it gives way to seem so. The sudden crisis in Kazakhstan has been dealt with since Kremlin, as well as from Tokayev’s local government, as an international conspiracy. New edition in Central Asia of the so-called “colored revolutions“what other than attempts to erode the vital space of Russia. And the coincidence of times certainly does not please Moscow, which with the troops amassed on the border with Ukraine had to send several soldiers to the former Kazakh Soviet republic to quell the riots.
China feeds conspiracy theory over Kazakhstan
The theory of plot it is also powered by the China, which has a vested interest in keeping Russia and the United States separate. The Foreign Minister, Wang Yi, had a telephone conversation with Kazakhstan’s chief of diplomacy, Mukhtar Tileuberdi, during which Wang pointed the finger at “some external forces” and declared China’s readiness to strengthen cooperation with Kazakhstan on “maintaining order and security”. “The recent riots in Kazakhstan show that there are still major challenges to the situation in Central Asia and show once again that some external forces they don’t want peace and stability in our region “.
Fiction that suits Putin, who in the meantime has just spoken with the leader of the Tajikistan Emomali Rahmon, during which the latter however warned him that the Islamic State is strengthening its positions in Afghanistan, with over six thousand militants on the Afghan-Tajik border, which is also the southern border of the CSTO. It is clear that a Xi Jinping we need to magnify external interference to keep Putin close and not risk seeing him approach Biden. On the other hand, rhetoric also suits Putin as long as (and above all if) that rapprochement should ever exist.
Meanwhile, the Russian troops on the border with Ukraine seem to have no intention of leaving and indeed have been strengthened even in the last few days. They cannot wait forever.