2023-09-19 16:59:00
In Japan, statistical experts have decided and their sentence seems irrevocable. For decades, the archipelago has been facing an aging population and the trend is increasing. According to data communicated by the authorities, more than one in ten citizens is over 80 years old. Another statistic: more than 29% of the population is over 65, a figure which could be reached in France by 2070, according to INSEE.
What would be the consequences for us if 10% of the population were over 80 years old? Elements of response with Laurent Toulemon, researcher at the national institute of demographic studies (INED).
Is the French population following in the footsteps of Japan? On what horizon?
What could be more logical than an old country, France, invaded by a population of old people. Today, referring to INSEE’s interactive age pyramid tool, around 4.1 million French people are aged 80 or over, or 6% of the population. Yes, France will find itself in a situation similar to that of Japan. But, according to our specialist, there is no reason to worry.
“According to INSEE projections, we will adopt the situation in Japan within around twenty years, around 2042. We can explain this by two movements: structural aging with a drop in mortality and fertility.” Depending on the high or low life expectancy scenarios, that is to say if mortality decreases more or less quickly than in the past, this proportion would be reached between 2038 and 2051, add the INSEE experts, contacted by 20 Minutes.
This trend can be explained by the baby boom generation. After the war, the birth rate jumped, and newborns at that time are now 75 years old. “The small generations born before 1945 will be replaced by the much larger generations born after 1946. This will accelerate aging, we will reach 10% over 80 around 2042. After this stage, the number of people elderly will continue to increase, but much less rapidly,” adds our expert.
Will the consequences of population aging be absorbed by the current system?
The aging of the French will require us to reconsider three priority areas: retirement, health, and solidarity. “The pension system is already faced with the problem, but it is supposed to be ready to take the shock,” judges our expert. For medicine, health consumption explodes in the last year of life. As there will be an increase in the number of deaths, there will also be a significant increase in citizens suffering from end-of-life illness.”
Finally, regarding solidarity, society will have to adapt to elderly people, and in particular to dependency at the end of life. The changes are numerous and significant, but they should not cause any imbalance. “Today, we have few elderly people in France because there was a sudden increase in the number of births seventy-five years ago. So, we will return to a state of balance in the next 20 years,” specifies Laurent Toulemon.
Does the drop in the fertility rate raise fears of a lack of generational renewal?
The birth rate in France fell by 7% in the first quarter this year. Even if France retains the highest fertility rate in the EU (1.8 children per woman, compared to 1.5 on average), the trend has been downward since the 2010s, with different dynamics depending on the age group. “The fertility rate of women under 30 has been declining since the 2000s. This reduction has been accentuated since 2015. The fertility rate of women aged 30 to 34 has declined later,” specify INSEE experts. .
“Despite a rebound after Covid, fertility is falling, even if we cannot speak of a collapse. At the current level, if there was no migration, a little less than 2.1 children/woman would be needed for the generations to be renewed,” explains Laurent Toulemon.
No immediate cause for concern, therefore, unlike Japan and some of its Asian neighbors (South Korea, Taiwan, Singapore). “In South Korea, the fertility rate is less than one child/woman. In the long term, the population is halved every 30 years. In a century it is divided by 8, there is something a little dizzying,” confides the researcher. For comparison, if France remains at the current fertility rate, it would take “more than two centuries for our population to be halved”. Enough to protect ourselves, for the moment, from a society lacking adults.
#aging #French #population #worrying