Title: Crisis in Karabakh: Blame Game between Armenia and Russia Intensifies
Subtitle: Moscow’s declining influence in the South Caucasus prompts questions about its clout in the region
Date: September 22, 20XX
In an unexpected turn of events, the recent crisis in the disputed region of Nagorno-Karabakh has strained the relationship between Armenia and its long-time ally, Russia. Armenians are blaming Russia for its failure to prevent the seizure of the area by Turkish-backed Azerbaijani forces. Moscow, on the other hand, is blaming Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan for triggering the crisis and defending its behavior. As the blame game intensifies, questions arise about Russia’s diminishing influence in the region.
The crisis in Nagorno-Karabakh, an ethnic Armenian enclave recognized as Azerbaijan but controlled by a breakaway administration, has put Russia’s role as a peacekeeper into question. Just like the chaotic scenes at Kabul airport during the U.S. withdrawal from Afghanistan, the impotence of Russian peacekeepers stationed in Karabakh has raised concerns about Moscow’s power in the region. The images of fleeing Armenians at Russia’s own peacekeeping base have been a blow to Russia’s credibility.
Karabakh, situated in Russia’s perceived sphere of influence, is under pressure from regional players such as Turkey, Azerbaijan, and Iran. At a time when Russia is preoccupied with its own conflict in Ukraine, the crisis in Karabakh has further tested its ability to maintain stability in its “backyard.” Despite having military facilities in Armenia, Russia’s inability to prevent the seizure of Karabakh has forced it into a blame game, both with Armenia and on the international stage.
The situation has exacerbated Russia’s declining influence in the South Caucasus, leading to a surge in anger among some Russians. The killing of five Russian peacekeepers in an apparent accident involving Azerbaijani forces has further fueled resentment. Russian military bloggers have expressed their outrage, calling for Moscow to retaliate against Baku and accusing Azerbaijan of defeating Karabakh with “Russian blood on its lips.”
Complicating matters, anti-Russian sentiments have emerged in Armenia, traditionally seen as one of Russia’s closest allies. Protests outside the Russian embassy in Yerevan, the Armenian capital, and anti-Russian slogans have added fuel to the fire. Some experts warn that this growing anti-Russian sentiment could lead to a dangerous trend of anti-Russian hysteria.
The blame for the crisis has been directed at PM Pashinyan, who had previously expressed doubts about relying solely on Russia for Armenia’s security. He openly criticized the Russian peacekeepers for their failure to protect Karabakh and even held joint military drills with U.S. forces. Russia has seized the opportunity to attribute the crisis to Pashinyan’s diplomatic incompetence and ingratitude.
Amid the blame game, some Russian officials have hinted at their willingness to see Pashinyan toppled. Dmitry Medvedev, the deputy chairman of the Security Council, wrote a scathing critique of Pashinyan’s mistakes, including his “flirting with NATO.” Despite being on the backfoot, Russia believes that Armenia’s options are limited, regardless of who is in power.
As the crisis in Karabakh unfolds, concerns are growing about Russia’s clout in the region. The recent events have further questioned Moscow’s ability to maintain stability and protect its interests as rivals such as Turkey and Iran exert their influence. The pictures of frightened Armenians at the airport in Karabakh have raised doubts about whether Russia can effectively assert its power in the face of growing challenges in its perceived backyard.
In the coming days and weeks, the aftermath of the Karabakh crisis will undoubtedly shape the dynamics between Armenia, Russia, and other regional players. As Moscow engages in damage control and Armenians grapple with the choice between exile and integration, the future of the South Caucasus remains uncertain. Only time will reveal the true consequences for Russia’s influence in the region.
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