2023-09-25 07:02:23
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Xi Jinping trusted and favored them. Now they seem to have fallen out of favor.
In recent months, the disappearances from public life of several high-ranking Chinese officials have sparked intense speculation about whether Xi Jingping has embarked on a purge, particularly of those positions linked to the military.
The latest person who seems to have fallen from grace is el ministro de Defensa, Li Shangfu, who has not been seen in public for a few weeks.
Although his absence was not considered unusual at first, scrutiny intensified when a senior American diplomat noted the “disappearance.”
A Reuters cable later said that General Li, who He used to supervise the acquisition of weapons for the Popular Army Liberation Army (PLA), was being investigated for purchases of military equipment.
His “absence” comes weeks after two senior officials of the Rocket Forces (the military arm that controls nuclear missiles) and a military court judge were dismissed.
Now new rumors are circulating that some commanders of the central military commission of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) – which controls the armed forces – are also being investigated.
Getty Images General Li Shangfu has disappeared from public life.
There has been almost no official explanation for these expulsions, beyond “health reasons”, which has given rise to all kinds of speculation.
The main theory is that authorities are cracking down on corruption in the People’s Liberation Army.
The armed forces have been on high alert: in July they issued an unusual call asking the population for information about corruption in the last five years.
According to BBC Monitoring, since April Xi appears to have embarked on a new round of inspections.
In recent months he has made five visits to military bases.
Little transparency in military spending
Corruption has long been a problem in the military, particularly since China began liberalizing its economy in the 1970s, said James Char, a researcher at Singapore’s Nanyang Technological University who studies the relationship between the Chinese Communist Party (PCC) and the army.
Every year, China spends more than 1 trillion yuan on military, part of it goes to procurement, which for reasons of national security cannot be revealed in their entirety. This lack of transparency is further exacerbated by China’s centralized one-party system.
Unlike the type of public scrutiny that other countries’ militaries are subject to, China’s armed forces are exclusively supervised by the CCPChar pointed out.
Getty Images China increased military spending by more than 7% this year.
And although Xi has achieved some triumphs when it comes to moderate corruption within the armed forces and restore its reputation to some extent, “eradicating corruption is a titanic, if not impossible, task,” as it would require “systemic redesigns that, I fear, the authoritarian state remains reluctant to impose,” the expert added.
“Until the CCP government is willing to implement a proper legal system that is no longer policed by itself, these purges will continue to occur.”
¿Paranoia?
But the disappearances could also be attributed to a deepening paranoia in the Chinese government at a time when its relationship with the United States is increasingly complicated.
In July, a sweeping counterespionage law came into force in China, giving authorities greater power and scope to conduct investigations.
Shortly after, China’s Ministry of State Security publicly encouraged citizens to help them combat espionage activities.
The disappearance of General Li follows that of Foreign Minister Qin Gangwhose dismissal in July also caused speculation to reach a fever pitch.
This week, The Wall Street Journal reported that Qin was being investigated for an alleged extramarital relationship from which a child was born in the United States.
Getty Images Foreign Minister Qin Gang may have had an extramarital affair with an American.
“Having an affair is not disqualifying in elite circles [del Partido Comunista]but have a with someone who may be suspected of having ties to foreign intelligence and have a child with the passport of your key geopolitical rival, if not enemy, now he can be one,” noted Chinese analyst Bill Bishop.
There is also speculation that Xi is acting under party pressure to clean up internally, as China suffers from a slowing post-Covid economy and rising youth unemployment.
Under China’s political system, Xi is not only the president of China but also the top leader of the military.
In a way, the disappearances are a sign of instability in Xi’s leadership.
Xi’s leadership
Analysts also point out that both General Li and Qin were not only ministers but also They occupied higher positions as state councilors, and they had Xi’s favor.
Therefore, his sudden falls could be seen as a lack of judgment on the part of the Chinese president.
If one sees the disappearances as a political purge, then the fact that he had to carry out one so soon after consolidating power at last year’s party congress, where he successfully neutralized potential rival factions and assembled key committees with his allies, gives a bad image.
But others estimate that it is another show of strength by Xi.
Son of a purged PCC official, Xi is famous for his public crackdowns on corruption, which double as political purges aimed at rooting out his enemies, analysts say.
Getty Images Beijing’s military budget, which is around US$225 billion, does not yet exceed that of the United States.
Since Mao Zedong, no other Chinese leader has matched Xi’s repressive measures.
They are estimated to have reached thousands of commanders over the years and have targeted both low-level and senior officials.
All starting with his “tigers and flies” campaign launched shortly after taking office in 2013.
He also targeted the armed forces and by 2017 had dismissed more than 100 high-ranking officers.. At the time, the state news agency Xinhua stated in an article that the figure “far exceeded the number of generals killed in the wars to create the new China.”
But the most important question revolves around to the signal they send the latest disappearances and their final impact.
Accommodating charges
Analysts say they would create a climate of fear in the army and government. And although this may be the desired result to guarantee the law, it also It would have a demoralizing effect.
After years of systematically rooting out those who have fallen out of his favor and filling the most important positions with people loyal to him could mean that Xi has surrounded himself with men who only say yes.
The risk of groupthink is the “real instability” of Xi’s leadership, as it could negatively affect China’s national security and foreign policy, Char noted.
In fact, the disappearances occurred during a tense period in the Taiwan Strait, to which China has sent more warships and military aircraft in recent weeks.
Getty Images China has simulated precision strikes against key targets in Taiwan.
Any disruption to communication on foreign policy and defense diplomacy would be “particularly worrying” as “could cause accidents and managing the escalation could become more difficult”said Ian Chong, a non-resident fellow at the Carnegie China think tank.
Other experts, however, maintain that China’s military leadership is strong enough enough to resist the replacement of some senior officials and point out that the Asian giant has been careful to operate below the threshold of war.
Others believe the disappearances are unlikely to have a long-term impact on the stability of Xi’s leadership.
None of the commands that have been attacked so far is part of your inner circlesaid Neil Thomas, an expert on elite China politics at the Asia Society Policy Institute.
What most observers agree on is that these incidents highlight the opacity of the Chinese system.
“This further heightens doubts about the continuity of policy implementation and the credibility of any promises or guarantees at the working level,” Chong said.
As a last resort, the disappearances of these officials have fueled concern.
BBC
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