Democrats Find Success in Special Elections Despite Biden’s Unpopularity
In a surprising turn of events, Democrats have been able to secure strong results in special elections despite widespread public dissatisfaction with President Biden and concerns about the economy. These lesser-known contests have served as an important barometer of voter enthusiasm and have provided Democrats with a reason for optimism.
According to a study conducted by the Democratic Legislative Campaign Committee, Democrats have outperformed President Biden’s 2020 election results in 21 out of 27 state legislative special elections held this year. On average, Democrats have exceeded the president’s showing by seven percentage points. These victories include an 11-point triumph for a liberal State Supreme Court candidate in Wisconsin and a 14-point defeat of an Ohio ballot referendum that was seen as a proxy battle over abortion rights.
These results contradict months of public opinion polling that has consistently shown President Biden to be deeply unpopular as he prepares for his re-election bid next year. However, the Democratic Party has successfully utilized the issue of abortion rights to energize their base and appeal to moderate Republicans. Since the Supreme Court’s decision to overturn Roe v. Wade, Democrats have emphasized the importance of abortion rights in their campaigns, and it appears to have resonated with voters.
Special elections have historically been used by candidates to leverage national issues and gain momentum for future elections. For example, Scott Brown’s upset victory in the 2010 Senate special election in Massachusetts by running against President Obama’s healthcare push foreshadowed the wave election that Republicans would experience in the subsequent midterm elections. Similarly, Conor Lamb’s centrist campaign in a deep-red Pennsylvania district in 2018 helped Democrats regain control of the House in the 2018 midterms.
Despite the relatively low voter turnout in special elections and the skewed demographics of the voters, Democrats have been quick to emphasize the significance of their wins. Julie Chávez Rodríguez, Mr. Biden’s campaign manager, wrote in an email to donors that these victories prove the strength of Mr. Biden’s message and the party’s ability to resonate with voters across the country.
However, political operatives remain divided on the importance of special elections and their predictive power. Critics argue that these contests do not accurately represent the wider electorate and should not be overestimated. Nevertheless, the upcoming elections in Virginia, where Democratic candidates are warning against the rollback of abortion rights by a Republican-controlled legislature, will provide a clearer picture of the parties’ strength heading into 2024.
With the Virginia elections on the horizon, Democrats hope to further solidify their standing and maintain momentum in down-ballot races. Despite President Biden’s low approval ratings, past presidents, including Barack Obama, have managed to recover and win re-election. Democrats believe that a combination of favorable political conditions since the Roe v. Wade ruling and their ability to mobilize voters through the issue of abortion rights will continue to work in their favor.