Title: Concerns Rise as Kremlin Sympathizer Takes Lead in Slovakia’s Prime Ministerial Race
Subtitle: Opposition party led by pro-Putin Robert Fico sparks alarm in the West
Date: [Current Date]
In a surprising turn of events, Slovakia is on the brink of electing its fifth prime minister in just four years, with Kremlin sympathizer Robert Fico’s opposition party currently leading in the polls. This development has raised concerns in the West, particularly due to Fico’s open support for Russian President Vladimir Putin and his opposition to Ukraine and NATO.
Since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2014, Slovakia has been one of Kyiv’s staunchest allies. The country sent air defenses and other military equipment to Ukraine and welcomed tens of thousands of refugees. However, if Fico comes to power, all that could change. Known for his sympathies towards the Kremlin, Fico has publicly blamed “Ukrainian Nazis and fascists” for provoking Russia’s invasion, echoing the false narrative used by Putin to justify his actions.
Fico has called for an end to Slovakia’s weapon supply to Ukraine and has expressed his opposition to Ukraine joining NATO. Grigorij Mesežnikov, a political analyst and the president of the Institute of Public Affairs, has identified Fico’s support for Moscow as a facade of “peace” initiatives. According to Mesežnikov, Fico’s argument is that ceasing weapon supply to Ukraine will facilitate peace, but in reality, he is pro-Russian, not pro-peace.
Fico previously served as Slovakia’s prime minister for over a decade, twice between 2006 and 2018. He was forced to resign in 2018 following mass protests over the murder of investigative journalist Jan Kuciak and his fiancee, Martina Kušnírová. Kuciak had reported on corruption within the country’s elite, including individuals connected to Fico and his party SMER.
In the aftermath of SMER’s decline, the center-right Ordinary People and Independent Personalities (OLaNO) party won the subsequent election in 2020. However, disappointment ensued as OLaNO’s leader, Igor Matovič, faced challenges related to corruption scandals and infighting. Matovič’s unilateral decision to purchase Covid-19 vaccines from Russia further eroded public trust, ultimately leading to his resignation.
The political chaos of recent years has now paved the way for Fico’s resurgence. Despite earlier speculation about SMER’s fading support, Fico has managed to rehabilitate himself, buoyed by government conflicts, Covid-19, high inflation, the energy crisis, and the war in Ukraine.
Slovakia’s electoral system and fragmented political scene mean that even if Fico’s party wins the election, he will likely require a coalition partner. It is noteworthy that Fico has not ruled out cooperating with Republika, an extremist far-right party that blames NATO’s expansion policy and Kyiv’s aggression towards Eastern Ukraine’s Russian minority for the war.
Government infighting, corruption scandals, and weakened public trust have created fertile ground for propaganda and disinformation campaigns, particularly propagated by pro-Russian factions. A survey conducted by Bratislava-based think tank GlobSec revealed that only 40% of Slovaks believe Russia is responsible for the war in Ukraine, the lowest proportion among Central and Eastern European countries surveyed. The poll also indicated that 50% of Slovaks consider the United States, their longstanding ally, as a security threat.
Dominika Hajdu, policy director at GlobSec’s Centre for Democracy and Resilience, highlighted Slovakia’s vulnerability to Russian propaganda due to historical ties and a strong pro-Russian sentiment within a quarter of the population. Hajdu also mentioned that the divisive issue of national borders between Slovakia and Hungary, along with nationalistic rhetoric, contributes to this vulnerability.
Mesežnikov argued that Fico and his allies have tapped into a growing fatigue and anger among Slovak voters over the government’s unwavering support for Ukraine. While Slovakia has been actively aiding Kyiv, some voters feel this comes at the expense of their own well-being. Although most of the support is subsidized by the European Union, Fico and Republika have successfully courted those who feel the aid is costly.
As Slovakia approaches its pivotal election, the international community eagerly awaits the outcome. The possibility of a pro-Kremlin leader assuming power in a country that has been a stalwart supporter of Ukraine and the West raises serious concerns about the future of Slovak-Russian relations and regional stability.
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