Title: Populist SMER Party on Track to Win Slovakia’s General Election, Raising Concerns Over Ukraine’s Support
By Rob Cameron, BBC Correspondent, Brno
Slovakia is preparing for early elections this weekend following the collapse of the former centre-right government. The populist SMER party, led by Robert Fico, is currently leading most polls and is expected to emerge victorious. However, Fico’s pledge to immediately end Slovak military support for Ukraine has raised alarm bells in Western capitals.
Fico was previously forced to step down as prime minister in 2018 following the murder of investigative journalist Jan Kuciak. Now, if SMER enters government, Fico has promised not to send any military ammunition to Ukraine. This stance has triggered concerns among NATO and EU members, who fear a potential crack in their unity.
Slovakia has historically been a loyal ally, supplying Ukraine with surface-to-air missiles, helicopters, and even donating its entire fleet of retired MiG-29 fighter jets. However, the country’s military resources are now scarce, as confirmed by a western official close to the matter.
While commercial contracts for heavy weapons, including self-propelled howitzers, remain, these contracts provide jobs for Slovaks and revenue for the state. It is argued that Fico would be unlikely to jeopardize these arrangements given their economic importance.
The SMER party did not respond to interview requests, but MP Lubos Blaha, who is associated with the party, previously used language that appeared to be scripted in Moscow rather than Bratislava. Blaha stated that the conflict in Ukraine was a “proxy war of the United States against Russia on Ukrainian land.” Fico himself also made controversial remarks, accusing Ukrainian “Nazis and fascists” of starting the conflict in Donbas.
Challenging SMER in the elections is Progressive Slovakia, a liberal and pro-western party that promises to maintain military aid to Ukraine. Progressive Slovakia offers a vision of an open, tolerant, and cosmopolitan society, while SMER campaigns on stability, order, and social security.
Slovakia faces a complex electoral landscape with as many as 10 parties predicted to win seats in the parliament. The formation of a coalition government could be messy and challenging.
Analysts and experts are concerned that Fico’s return to power could push Slovakia closer towards Moscow’s orbit. A recent survey revealed that only 40% of Slovaks believe Russia is responsible for the war in Ukraine, while half see the United States as a security threat. Fico’s rhetoric appears to resonate with a significant portion of the population, sparking fears of a shift in Slovakia’s foreign policy.
As the election draws near, the international community closely watches the outcome and its potential implications for the stability and unity of the NATO and EU coalition supporting Ukraine.