2023-09-29 22:14:29
After five hectic years in Slovak politics, the country is holding uncertain legislative elections this Sunday with a lot at stake. Most polls predict the winner will be a populist former prime minister, Robert Fico, who has vowed to end Bratislava’s staunch support for Ukraine and has a narrow lead over the latter.
The perfect autumn storm for the European far right
Fico has said he will not send “another bullet” to the East to help his neighboring country defend itself from Russian aggression, has called sanctions against Moscow “useless” and has promised to veto any application for Ukraine to join NATO.
However, it is not certain that he will win. Even if he did, he would not have a majority in a 150-seat Parliament and could have great difficulty forming a coalition. Many experts also doubt that he is as radical in charge as his campaign rhetoric suggests.
Given its effort to maintain a united front and sustain financial and military support for Ukraine, Europe and the rest of its Western partners remain expectant.
Political panorama and electoral system
Slovak politics has been especially volatile and virulent since 2018, when journalist Ján Kuciak and his fiancee, Martina Kusnírová, were murdered after investigating cases of tax evasion, fraud and corruption in the upper echelons of Slovak politics.
The murders sparked public outcry and mass protests, forcing then-Prime Minister Fico to resign within weeks. Since then, this country of five million people has suffered five years of serious political turbulence, including four prime ministers.
Fico’s number two, Peter Pellegrini, replaced him as prime minister, and the 2020 elections were won by Igor Matovic, of the center-right OL’aNO party, amid a wave of outrage against corruption. He formed a coalition with three minor libertarian, nationalist and right-wing parties.
Pellegrini quickly left Fico’s Social Democratic Party (SMER) to form his own social democratic party, Hlas; and Matovic’s rude and chaotic style and his disastrous management of the coronavirus crisis were the push that caused the new coalition to plummet and its members to begin bitter internal struggles.
In March 2021, both the libertarian SaS party and the center-right Za l’udí party threatened to leave if Matovic did not step aside, leading him to exchange roles with his economy minister, Eduard Heger, who became prime minister – but he also failed in his attempt to steady the ship.
Heger’s government finally collapsed in September 2022, after SaS ministers, who had asked Matovic to also resign from his new position, left the executive. Heger lost a vote of no confidence in December last year, paving the way for an interim prime minister, L’udovít Ódor.
Slovakia’s system of proportional party lists and severe electoral thresholds further complicate matters. Voters can express their preferences for up to four candidates in the only existing electoral district for the entire national territory.
However, to obtain seats, parties – which can run alone or in coalition – must overcome a considerable barrier: 5% of the vote at the national level for a single party, 7% for coalitions of two or three parties and 10 % for those composed of four formations or more.
Main actors and parties
It is perhaps telling that none of the politicians who did well in Slovakia’s last election are running for prime minister in these elections.
Fico, 59, founded SMER in 1999 as a social democratic party that offered new faces and a different way of doing things. Over the years, and especially now in opposition, he and his party have become progressively more nationalist, radical and socially conservative, even though his economic vision is left-wing.
During the election campaign, he said that the Russian war was started by “Ukrainian Nazis and fascists” in 2014. He has long been an admirer of Hungarian Viktor Orbán and has attacked his rivals fiercely; He falsely claimed that there was a conspiracy for a coup d’état and claimed that the elections would be rigged.
In previous exercises, however, he has proven to be pragmatic by bringing Slovakia into the euro and by long avoiding damaging confrontations with Brussels. Many suspect that, given Slovakia’s heavy dependence on European Union markets and financial support, it would be like this again.
Fico’s main rival is the social liberal and economic reformist Progressive Slovakia (PS) party of Michal Simecka, an Oxford graduate and vice president of the European Parliament. His group is markedly pro-Western, pro-EU and pro-NATO.
Pellegrini’s Hlas could be decisive, currently in third place and with whom the SMER could forge an alliance. He has also criticized, albeit much less loudly, Slovakia’s decision to send MiG-29 fighters and missile systems to Ukraine.
The results of half a dozen or more minor parties, which in polls remain around the electoral threshold, will be crucial to seeing possible coalitions.
Campaign issues
Slovak voters are tired of the economic suffering caused by coronavirus restrictions, high inflation due to the war in Ukraine and increased irregular immigration. Fico has been campaigning against the country’s chaotic governance for five years.
Despite several key SMER politicians facing corruption charges, the party’s central message is a promise of order and stability, as Fico argues that it has experience in overcoming major challenges in healthcare and infrastructure.
Furthermore, it exploits pro-Russian sentiment (only 40% of Slovaks consider Russia primarily responsible for the war, the lowest proportion in Central and Eastern Europe); He has also deferred to socially conservative voters by making progressive values in general, and LGBT rights in particular, a central issue.
Although it is not a political issue, the campaign has been characterized by misinformation in a country that has long been receptive to pro-Russian narratives due to a historical affinity, a low level of trust in public organizations and with politicians normalizing previously marginal positions. .
What can happen
SMER leads in most polls, almost on par with the PS at 18% and Hlas is in third place with around 14%. The far-right Republika party and OL’aNO hope to get 8%, followed by half a dozen minority parties, including SaS with between 5% and 6%.
If Fico were to form a coalition, it could include his former Hlas allies – many of whom would hesitate to join him – along with a conservative nationalist party, the populist right-wing party Sme Rodina (We Are Family), and perhaps the liberals in the economic of the SaS.
There could be a more radical option through Republika, widely considered a split from a neo-Nazi party often accused of anti-Semitism; and the Slovak National Party (SNS), also accused of racism against the Roma community.
At the other end of the political spectrum, potential coalition partners for the PS could include OL’aNO, Za L’udí (For the People) and Krestanska Únia (Christian Union), all of whom are pro-Western, along with – possibly – Hlas, SaS, Sme Rodina and smaller parties.
Various combinations, however, and although they may agree on a pro-EU and pro-Ukraine line, would have difficulty finding common economic and social policies, with some parties in favor of same-sex marriage and their right to have children while others oppose civil unions.
With so many parties around the 5% threshold in the polls, there may be a lot of changes to the polls. Neither SMER nor PS may be able to form a coalition, which would lead to another election next year. And even if they can, history indicates that, in a Slovakia of polarized and partisan politics, it may not last long.
Translated by María Torrens Tillack.
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