2023-09-30 17:14:55
It was once more fun to be a shareholder. September lived up to its reputation as a bad month for the stock markets. Stock prices fell all over the world, including in Germany.
In most cases they only fell by a few percent, there was no real stock market crash. But after the previous months brought joy to investors, the unrest is now back on the stock market.
No environment for enthusiasm for stocks
Some people are now comparing the current situation with the situation a year ago. At that time, the prices had fallen sharply until the autumn: in Germany in 2022 there was a fear that the Federal Republic could run out of energy in the winter. As we know, things didn’t get that bad, which caused relief on the stock market and caused prices to rise.
Can a repeat of the stock rally be expected a year later? Unfortunately, the conditions for this are rather poor. Because one thing has changed significantly compared to the previous year – the level of interest.
In September 2022, the European Central Bank (ECB) recognized that it had to do more to combat the significantly increased inflation. However, the key interest rate at that time was just 1.25 percent, and the first interest rate increases were just two months ago.
Monetary policy cannot have any real effects in such a short time, which also means that the higher interest rates had no impact on economic development at all at the time. A good year later things look different.
The economic slowdown, which the central bankers certainly intended, is a reality. The key interest rate is now 4.5 percent. It is difficult to spark enthusiasm for stocks in such an environment, especially as the high interest rates from central banks are gradually starting to have an impact in the rest of the world.
Dyrk Scherff Published/Updated: , Recommendations: 10 Daniel Mohr Published/Updated: , Recommendations: 7 Daniel Mohr Published/Updated: , Recommendations: 3
However, according to many experts, interest rates may have already reached their peak or may be imminent. Once such turning points have been reached, stocks generally become more attractive again. That at least gives some hope in the gloomy stock market autumn.
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