Populist former prime minister Robert Fico’s Smer party is on course to win Slovakia’s election, garnering more support than its rival Progressive Slovakia in a dramatic knife-edge race.
With over 98% of districts reporting, Smer is set to take over 23% of the vote. Michal Šimečka’s Progressive Slovakia (PS) came second with over 17%, followed closely by Peter Pellegrini’s Hlas with 15%.
The election’s outcome is likely to further fuel fears about Slovakia’s future foreign policy orientation. Fico, 59, has vowed to stop military aid to Ukraine, criticised sanctions targeting Russia and campaigned against LGBTQ+ rights.
Exit polls initially indicated that PS pulled ahead to first place, raising expectations in the country’s liberal camp. But as votes were counted throughout the night, those hopes were dashed.
Still, the shape of Slovakia’s next government remains unclear and much will depend on complex coalition-building with smaller parties, including Peter Pellegrini’s Hlas and Igor Matovič’s OĽaNO.
Former Fico colleague and Hlas leader Pellegrini could become kingmaker. His party has so far kept its options open and refused to say which party it would back, but is widely believed to favour an alliance with Smer over the more socially liberal PS.
The first party across the line was expected to get a mandate from President Zuzana Caputova to lead talks on forming a parliamentary majority and, if successful, a government.
The final districts to report, from large cities, were expected to favour PS, but the gap behind Fico appeared too large to bridge.
A government led by Fico and his Smer-SSD party would see NATO member Slovakia joining Hungary in challenging the European Union’s consensus on support for Ukraine just as the bloc looks to maintain unity in opposing Russia’s invasion.
“We do want to evaluate everything, so we will wait for the final count,” said Robert Kalinak, a Smer-SSD candidate and long-time Fico ally, adding the party would comment on the full results later on Sunday.
The PS party has advocated maintaining Slovakia’s strong backing for Ukraine, and would also likely follow a liberal line within the EU on issues such as majority voting to make the bloc more flexible, green policies, and LGBTQ+ rights.
Šimečka did not give up hope he could form the next government, depending on how possible smaller allies end up.
“It remains our aim for Slovakia to have after this election a stable pro-European government that will care for the rule of law and which begins to solve and invest in areas key for our future,” Šimečka, a European parliament member and former reporter and Oxford graduate, told supporters.
The incoming government in the nation of 5.5 million will take over a ballooning budget deficit forecast to be the highest in the euro zone.
Fico has ridden on dissatisfaction with a bickering center-right coalition, whose government collapsed last year, triggering the election six months early. In campaigning, he stressed concern about a rise in the number of migrants passing through Slovakia to western Europe.
Fico’s views reflect traditionally warm sentiments towards Russia among many Slovaks, which have gathered strength on social media since the Ukraine war started.
He has also pledged to end military supplies to Ukraine and strive for peace talks – a line close to that of Hungary’s leader, Viktor Orbán, but rejected by Ukraine and its allies, who say this would only encourage Russia.
The far-right Republika party, which was seen as a possible ally for Fico but unacceptable to others, may not win any seats, partial results, and media projections showed.