2023-10-05 14:18:21
The left-wing nationalist Smer party in Slovakia, led by Robert Fico, has established support for Ukraine as a campaign theme: He wants to end arms aid to the country when he comes back to power. Now he has actually been successful in the parliamentary elections. We spoke to the Eastern European historian Philipp Ther about what consequences this could have and what traditions Fico is following here.
Mr. Ther, Robert Fico’s left-wing nationalist Smer party emerged as the strongest force from the parliamentary elections in Slovakia. Does this mean that Fico will also become head of government?
It is likely that Fico will become head of government because another coalition would be very difficult to create and would probably be so heterogeneous that it would hardly hold together. But Mr. Fico’s classification as a left-wing populist is now questionable for me because he took massively right-wing positions in his election campaign, so that the right-left schema no longer really fits.
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The historian Philipp Ther, born in 1967 in Austria, holds a professorship at the Institute for Eastern European History at the University of Vienna and is the author of several non-fiction books. For his book “The New Order on the Old Continent. A History of Neoliberal Europe” he was awarded the non-fiction prize at the Leipzig Book Fair.
Philipp Ther founded the Research Center for the History of Transformations (RECET) in Vienna.
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However, he has to form a coalition, right?
Yes, the vote share was 23 percent, that is not a mandate for an authoritarian takeover of power, and it also shows that Slovakia remains pluralistic. In general, the Visegrád states, the new EU members, should not be lumped together. Slovakia and the Czech Republic function completely differently than Hungary. However, Orbán was noticeably happy to congratulate Fico on his election victory and there is of course the danger that Orbán will gain another ally in Fico, who will support him in one respect in particular, namely in a Russia-friendly course.
How important was Fico’s Russia-friendly course and criticism of his support for Ukraine for his election success?
Sympathies with Russia are something very old in Slovakia and in the Carpathians. Some of these already existed during the First World War, some for religious reasons. There are also Orthodox people there. And pan-Slavism also plays a certain role. In the 1990s, some Slovaks, especially in the east and in the countryside, were relatively critical of Western integration, especially joining NATO.
And can Fico build on that?
Exactly, these are traditions and attitudes that he draws on, but these only exist among a clear minority of the population. One can also interpret the election result as a kind of backlash. In the last election, the liberals and partly the conservatives won out of concern for Slovakia’s freedom and the rule of law. However, they then ruled chaotically, and there is now high inflation and loss of prosperity, so the previous government was completely expected to be voted out. Fico is also a good speaker.
Will this really mean that Slovakia will end its aid to Ukraine?
Fico has announced this, but whether it can be implemented is another question. On the one hand, the possible coalition partners see it differently, then there is a commitment and as a member of larger alliances such as NATO, the EU and also the Eurozone, it is difficult for a small country to completely sideline itself. Nevertheless, there is something deeply disturbing here: namely, that Eastern and various Western politicians such as Trump or American oligarchs like Elon Musk – he has to be named as such – have started to play with Ukraine as an election campaign issue. They’re picking on this country that can’t defend itself. Because if Ukraine said: Now stop picking on us, it would immediately say: You’re probably not grateful. Ukraine is not only defenseless, but also speechless.
Is this game with Ukraine a tactic in the election campaign or are there convictions behind it?
It is being done for electioneering purposes and that is despicable. But it could really bring Putin victory. If this war ends badly, including for the EU, then at some point people will ask themselves when it started, namely at this very moment when various Western populists – and Slovakia is part of the West – started picking on Ukraine. Of course, the argument that direct arms aid causes costs cannot be dismissed and smaller countries in particular, such as Slovakia, the Czech Republic and the Baltic states, are doing a lot. Proportionally, they do more than larger countries like Germany. And they also know why: because they are legitimately afraid that it will be next in line. But the Ukrainians and the Ukrainian state cannot help the increased inflation and other side effects of the war that Putin started. There is now a reversal of guilt. This argument is cheap and actually transparent. And it’s so unfair because it’s so difficult for Ukraine to contradict him.
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