Title: Increasing Partisanship and Gerrymandering Fuel Congressional Dysfunction
Date: [Insert Date]
In recent years, Congress has been plagued by ongoing dysfunction and paralysis, highlighting the deep divisions that exist among lawmakers. The current absence of a governing majority is a clear indication of the gridlock that hinders effective governance in the United States. While Republicans have a slight advantage in the House, they still lack the necessary unity to move forward.
Kevin McCarthy’s resignation as House speaker and the uncertainty surrounding his potential replacements, such as House Majority Leader Steve Scalise and Rep. Jim Jordan, endorsed by former President Donald Trump, further exemplify the challenges in unifying the party and reopening the House. The current situation necessitates almost complete Republican unity to resume regular legislative proceedings.
The diminishing size of congressional majorities over the years mirrors the increasing tribalism in American politics. Unlike the past, where Democratic majorities typically exceeded 50 seats, recent majorities have struggled to achieve a sizable advantage. This trend can be attributed to the sharp political divide within the country, which is reflected in the composition of Congress.
One significant factor contributing to the era of small majorities is gerrymandering, as congressional maps are designed to protect incumbents. Consequently, fewer seats change hands even when there is a shift in the country’s political landscape. Despite economic anxieties and frustrations with President Joe Biden, Republicans made minimal gains in the 2022 midterm elections, narrowly securing the House majority that continues to pose challenges.
An analysis by the Cook Political Report with Amy Walter reveals that the number of competitive districts, denoted as swing seats, has been cut in half over the years, dropping from 164 in 1998 to only 82 in 2022. This decline can be attributed not only to gerrymandering but also to growing partisan divisions in the country. States that have adopted nonpartisan systems for redistricting have seen slower erosion of swing districts. In contrast, Republican-controlled states that favor partisan redistricting have significantly fewer swing districts.
The current partisan atmosphere rewards lawmakers on the fringes of their respective parties while frustrating those who prioritize deal-making. McCarthy’s reliance on Democratic votes to pass a short-term government funding bill drew criticism from ultra-right lawmakers, contributing to his ousting. The intense partisanship in Congress discourages compromise and often leads to the targeting of deal-makers from both sides.
Looking ahead, McCarthy’s successor will face a similar dilemma when government funding expires in November, requiring a delicate balance between appeasing party members and seeking bipartisan support.
In the Senate, there is speculation that Sen. Joe Manchin of West Virginia, who aggravates more liberal Democrats, may be the seat most likely to flip in the 2024 election. Manchin’s moderate stance has played a significant role in securing the current Democratic Senate majority. However, the existence of a moderate middle within Congress could not prevent the current strained situation, as moderate Republicans decry the lack of support from moderate Democrats in preventing McCarthy’s downfall.
While Republicans bear the recent embarrassment and ugliness surrounding McCarthy’s departure, it is essential to recognize that deal-making for leadership positions is not exclusive to one party. Former House Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s departure from leadership was gracefully executed, but it was a calculated move nonetheless, preceded by an agreement to limit her leadership to four years. This agreement was honored following the 2022 midterm election.
As long as the nation remains closely divided, with neither party holding a solid governing majority, it is likely that these leadership battles and congressional dysfunction will persist. The combination of increasing partisanship and gerrymandered districts continues to fuel the deadlock in Congress, impeding effective governance and limiting progress on critical issues.