2023-10-09 10:28:16
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This analysis, which relates in particular to oil, would however change in the event of a “regional conflagration”, specified the Minister of the Economy.
An economic crisis should not be added to the political, human and diplomatic crisis. Questioned on Sud Radio this Monday morning, the French Minister of Economy and Finance returned to the attacks which hit Israel this weekend. Wanting to be reassuring, Bruno Le Maire indicated that he expected consequences “limited» of the conflict over activity and the economy.
If the price of a barrel of Brent jumped this Monday morning, exceeding the $87 mark, against “84 last week“, this increase remains “limited», below the 5% mark, noted the boss of Bercy. In addition, prices gradually fell again in the morning. “I think that the consequences of the conflict should be limited, on an economic level“, provided however that we avoid a “regional conflagration», indicated Bruno Le Maire, at the microphone of Sud Radio. A point of view shared by analysts cited by AFP: “What is decisive for the markets is whether the conflict remains contained or spreads to other regions, in particular Saudi Arabia», Estimated Brian Martin and Daniel Hynes, at ANZ.
The minister also defended the government’s energy policy, believing that gradually weaning ourselves off oil is also a way of protecting ourselves from economic ups and downs. “Accelerating the deployment of electricity, electric vehicles, green hydrogen, charging stations, means building our independence for the decades to come“, did he declare.
A minor business partner
This new crisis, however, risks reinforcing the volatility of oil prices, as uncertainties multiply. Inflation, slowdown in China, real estate crisis, OPEC announcements, drop in production by certain players… The contradictory signals have pushed the curve up and down in recent weeks, a situation which has put pressure on investors in turmoil.
Aside from oil, the expected consequences should remain minor if the conflict remains focused on the Jewish state. Israel is, in particular, a minor trading partner for France, which exported there, in 2022, for 2.1 billion euros, and imported for 1.5 billion euros, leading to a surplus balance for France, according to the general direction of the treasury. Paris mainly sells “chemicals, perfumes and cosmetics“, of the “transport equipment» and “products from the agri-food industries“. Several French companies, including Alstom, were able to sign major contracts with this partner, for a total of “1.1 billion euros» approximately in eighteen months, according to the treasure.
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