2023-10-09 18:00:10
Poster with Marine Le Pen and Jordan Bardella on a National Rally summer stand, September 16, 2023 in Beaucaire (Gard). CYRIL BITTON/DIVERGENCE FOR “THE WORLD”
“He does not move and yet he walks. How can you stop someone from moving forward if they don’t take any steps? » The formula of Louis XVIII against the future Louis-Philippe resonates today when we analyze the situation of the National Rally (RN) in the light of the eleventh wave of “French Fractures”: the RN is hardly moving , but he is making a lot of progress.
Contrary to what party officials defend, the label historically attached to this party has not completely changed. Even if this score is down 12 points compared to 2015, 66% of French people still respond today that the RN is “an extreme right party” – and this figure rises to 85% among supporters of La France insoumise (LFI) and Renaissance.
Also read the analysis: Article reserved for our subscribers “French fractures”: a country where declinism, anger and attraction to the far right are on the rise
However, if the label remains, its content is, at least in part, neutralized. The perception of the “dangerousness” of the RN is decreasing. This is absolutely the case: there are barely one in two French people (52%) to qualify the RN as “party dangerous for democracy” (– 9 points compared to 2020). Symptomatically, nearly 30% of French people who believe that the RN is a far-right party respond, at the same time, that it is not dangerous for democracy. The most decisive, however, is the reversal, in the space of barely three years, of the « figure you times ». Because the relative dangerousness of the RN has declined. Yesterday, LFI collected 10 points less than the RN on this question; today, she collects 5 more. This reversal is of considerable importance, but these results only amplify those of 2022.
Image dynamics
Among the notable elements this year, there is the increasing force of attraction of the RN. The local image of the RN, cited as positive, has been further strengthened: 40% of French people judge the formation to be Lepénist “close to their concerns” – the RN is ahead of all the other parties on this point.
But the more novel fact is found in the combined results of the “credibility-desirability” couple. Is the RN credible – which refers to its ability to govern the country? The French answer “yes” at 44% for the party, which comes in second position, 16 points ahead of LFI and even 2 points ahead of Renaissance. Desirability is measured by the desire to live in “the society that this party generally advocates” : 36% of French people answer “yes” for the RN, ahead of all the other parties as well. On this question, the turnaround with Europe Ecologie-Les Verts (EELV) is striking: in 2020, EELV was the most desirable party, 17 points ahead of the RN; today he is 2 points behind…
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