Expert: Russian military contingent may want to form a base in Karabakh

2023-10-11 16:46:58

On October 10, two warships of the Caspian flotilla of the Navy of the Russian Federation arrived in Baku. According to the information of the Ministry of Defense of Azerbaijan, this was presented as an “unofficial friendly visit”.

On the same day, Secretary of the Security Council of Russia Nikolay Patrushev also visited Baku. According to the official statement, during the meeting with President Ilham Aliyev, views were exchanged on the cooperation between Azerbaijan, Russia and Iran in the direction of developing the “North-South” Transport Corridor.

E. Nasirov

“A closer rapprochement between Azerbaijan and Russia…”

A deputy from the ruling New Azerbaijan Party (YAP). Elman Nasirov He told “Turan” that Azerbaijan and Russia getting closer to each other does not mean moving away from other power centers: “The state of Azerbaijan and President Ilham Aliyev, who personally defines this policy, implement an independent foreign policy that ensures the interests of the people of Azerbaijan. At the same time, he conducts his policy, which is able to stand at an equal distance with different power centers. That is, the warming trend in our relations with Moscow is not against Washington or Brussels. Approaching Washington or Brussels on one or another issue is not seen as an anti-Russian step in the Kremlin.”

According to him, against the backdrop of Armenia’s anti-Russian attitude, the Russian political elite has more opportunities to compare Azerbaijan and Armenia: “In this case, their respect and trust in Azerbaijan increases even more.”

“…Azerbaijan authorities have assumed certain obligations”

Opposition politician Fuad Kahramanli and thinks that Russia clearly showed its muscle by sending a missile-carrying ship to Baku: “It seems that in exchange for Russia’s neutrality in the one-day military operations in Karabakh, the Azerbaijani authorities have assumed certain obligations. In fact, the fact that the government remained silent on the process of liberating Karabakh from the separatists, unlike in the 44-day war, gave rise to certain doubts in this regard. Now it is clear that Russia wants concrete steps to be taken to fulfill the conditions it has imposed on Azerbaijan.

According to him, Russia’s declaration that it has started to establish 25 guard posts in Karabakh shows that since there is no Armenian population left in Karabakh (it is reported that there is little left), they are now trying to replace the peacekeeping activity with a new form: it was necessary to collect and protect it in different warehouses. These confiscated weapons should either be given to the balance of the Azerbaijani army, or, in the worst case, they should go to the disposal of Russia… Now, under the guise of protecting the confiscated weapons, they are creating areas and objects that they will control and that the Azerbaijani army cannot enter, and they are creating a basis for establishing a military base in Karabakh. It means that the Russians have no intention of leaving Karabakh even after 2025.”

“They are checking the pulse of Azerbaijan”

E.Şahinoğlu

Head of “Atlas” Research Center Elkhan Sahinoglu told RFE/RL that the visit of the Secretary of the Russian Security Council to Baku, Nikolai Patrushev, may be related to the country’s military contingent in Azerbaijan: “Actually, that military contingent is not needed in Karabakh, because the separatists have already been disarmed, the Azerbaijani army and police have entered Khankendi, and the Armenian population the number is not so much.”

The political scientist noted that logically, the decrease in posts indicates that the Russian military contingent will leave Karabakh by 2025: “But recently different statements have been heard from Russia. The deputy minister of foreign affairs of Russia and the minister himself stated that the Russian contingent is still needed here. It is as if they gathered in the Kremlin and decided not to withdraw the contingent from Karabakh. Patrushev’s visit is related to this, they are the pulse of Azerbaijanthey are checking”.

E. Shahinoglu believes that the Russian military contingent may want to form a base, and this is the most dangerous option: “Therefore, the Azerbaijani government should try to convince Patrushev and other emissaries of the Kremlin that for the sake of partnership, it is necessary to withdraw the military contingent from the region.”

Freedom radio