2023-10-14 08:00:00
The attack appears imminent. Friday, October 13, the Israeli army gave 24 hours to civilians living in Gaza City to flee to the south of the enclave, subject to a total siege since the massive Hamas attack against Israel, which left more than 1 200 dead – mostly civilians. “In the days that follow, the IDF will continue its operations significantly in Gaza City and will deploy considerable efforts to avoid harming civilians,” the Israeli army said on its X account (formerly Twitter).
After massive aerial bombardments which caused nearly 1,600 Palestinian deaths, according to the Gaza authorities, and the mobilization of 360,000 reservists, everything suggests that Operation Iron Sword will enter a new phase.
Night attack
Around 1 million civilians must leave Gaza City and go south to Wadi Gaza, a stream which therefore seems to delimit the perimeter of the future Israeli offensive. Many question the feasibility of such an evacuation in just 24 hours, while Hamas, which has held the territory with an iron fist since 2007, has called on civilians to stay to serve as human shields. “Ultimately, Gaza City will be considered by the IDF as a battlefield,” warns Pierre Razoux, academic director of the Mediterranean Foundation for Strategic Studies (Fmes).
IDF announcement sent to civilians of Gaza City:
The IDF calls for the evacuation of all civilians of Gaza City from their homes southwards for their own safety and protection and move to the area south of the Wadi Gaza, as shown on the map.
The Hamas terrorist organization…
— Israel Defense Forces (@IDF) October 13, 2023
The author of IDF, new history of the Israeli army (Perrin), believes that the initial attack will take place “at night in the coming days”. “The IDF will undoubtedly want to cut the Gaza Strip into two or three sections, in order to establish corridors under its control and to completely isolate the city, in particular by destroying the tunnels,” he believes.
This ground offensive could take the form of a raid of armored vehicles and tanks starting from the border between Gaza and Israel and ending on the shores of the Mediterranean. Once northern Gaza is completely surrounded, the coordinated assault on the city can be launched at night from all directions. “You have to imagine that this is a battle that will be played out in four dimensions,” he points out. Land with infantry and armor, maritime with the possibility of landing commandos, air with troops airlifted and dropped on buildings or strategic points, and finally underground, with hundreds of tunnels to clean. » All supported by aviation, helicopters, drones and artillery.
35,000 Hamas fighters
Opposite, Hamas lines up between 20,000 to 35,000 fighters, knowing the terrain perfectly, a partly destroyed urban environment, crossed by kilometers of underground galleries. “In a siege, there is generally a ratio of one defender against five attackers,” adds the IDF specialist, or around 150,000 Israeli soldiers. Engineer troops will be on the front line to clear mines and identify scattered explosive devices.
READ ALSO Hamas-Israel War: IDF, an army composed primarily of reservistsHow long could this battle take? “The encirclement of the city of Gaza can be done in a day or two,” judges Pierre Razoux, “as for the urban assault itself, everything depends on the tactics used. Progressing methodically to limit risks can take several weeks. » The tempo of operations will not be the same everywhere: “The Israelis can progress more on the ground and less underground, and vice versa. »
The latter assures him, the Tsahal as a whole is better prepared after the failures against Hezbollah in Lebanon in 2006 or more recently against Hamas in 2014, already in the Gaza Strip. During this last operation, the Israeli army lost more than 60 soldiers. “The objectives and tactics were not the same, the objective being the destruction of the tunnels accompanied by short incursions,” recalls the academic director of Fmes.
« Hit and run »
At the heart of the fighting, the fate of the hostages – 150, according to Hamas, some of whom died during the bombings – will be a major issue. Here, Israeli commandos will play a major role. The Jewish state has a dozen special forces units, such as the Sayeret Maktal, specializing in the release of hostages, or the Yahalom unit, in explosive devices and the destruction of tunnels.
The Flotilla 13 elite unit was deployed to the area surrounding the Gaza security fence in a joint effort to regain control of the Sufa military post on October 7th.
The soldiers rescued around 250 hostages alive.
60+ Hamas terrorists were neutralized and 26 were… pic.twitter.com/DWdHKZgdLw
— Israel Defense Forces (@IDF) October 12, 2023
The tactic employed could be that of “ hit and run » (hit and run). The commandos, once hostages are located, intervene to free them. They then quickly withdraw to avoid a counterattack into an area under enemy control. “Israel will do everything to recover them, alive or dead,” predicts Pierre Razoux.
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