In Poland, the “most important” elections since the fall of communism

2023-10-15 05:00:07
A Pole holds a sign saying “the one who hits Tusk is a Russian” during the broadcast of the party leaders’ debate on television, in Warsaw, October 9, 2023. SLAWOMIR KAMINSKI/AGENCJA WYBORCZA.PL VIA REUTERS

“What does this cost you, boy?” It’s only four years. So for these four years, try, close your eyes, grit your teeth if you can’t help it, and vote for [le parti] Law and justice [PiS]. » This exit of the former – and still very popular – Prime Minister (2015-2017) member of the ultraconservative party, Beata Szydlo, during an electoral meeting on October 12, testifies to the excitement which has invaded the PiS in the last row right of the campaign for the legislative elections scheduled for Sunday October 15. Donald Tusk, the former prime minister and leader of the first opposition party, smirking, said “surprised at his sincerity”.

Because the last opinion studies before the electoral truce, which began on Friday the 13th at midnight, allow the three parties of the democratic opposition to hope for the formation of a coalition. The last two published polls credit the PiS with 31% to 34.9% of the votes, the Civic Coalition (CO) of Donald Tusk with 26% to 27%, the Third Way, made up of the Polish Peasant Party and that of the former star journalist Szymon Holownia, from 10% to 12%, the United Left from 10% to 11%, and the libertarian far right of Konfederacja from 8% to 10%. In all of these scenarios, CO, the Third Way and the United Left would be able to surpass the absolute majority of 231 seats in the Diet, the lower house of Parliament. Despite this positive dynamic, the fight promises to be extremely close and could be decided by a few thousand votes.

If there is one constant in the polls for more than six months, it is that none gives the conservative national party led by Jaroslaw Kaczynski the capacity to govern alone. After a significant surge by the far right in the spring, the question of a coalition with the latter arose – denied by its representatives – or that of a minority government subject to its good will.

On the opposition side, all eyes will be on the Third Way’s score and its ability to cross the 8% electoral threshold, required for coalitions. Given the Polish electoral system, a failure would return the points and seats obtained to the party that came first, a “winner’s bonus” which could guarantee a majority for PiS.

“Civilizational choice”

Thus ends the longest and most brutal electoral campaign in recent Polish history. It suffered from an important paradox: the campaign teams only very marginally addressed, in their communication strategy, what constitutes the real issue of these elections: nor the questions relating to the preservation of the rule of law. , nor the exhaustive assessment of eight years of the PiS governments were central themes.

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