A recent study published in Nature Geoscience has shed light on the potential future of Earth’s climate and how it could affect mammalian life. The study, conducted by a team of international researchers led by the University of Bristol, used supercomputer climate models to examine the formation of a future supercontinent called Pangea Ultima, which is projected to occur 250 million years from now.
According to the study, Pangea Ultima’s formation will result in extreme temperatures that would make the new supercontinent uninhabitable for mammals, including humans. Two main factors contribute to the drastic rise in temperatures. The first factor is increased volcanism due to tectonic activity from the merging of all the continents. While volcanoes typically moderate temperatures by releasing carbon dioxide and naturally warming the planet, excessive volcanism would lead to an excess of carbon dioxide, causing substantial temperature increases. The second factor is the aging of our Sun, which will give off more energy and heat as it grows older.
Dr. Alexander Farnsworth, Senior Research Associate at the University of Bristol and lead author of the study, explains that the combination of a new supercontinent, a hotter sun, and increased levels of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere will create a hostile environment devoid of food and water sources for mammals. Dr. Farnsworth predicts widespread temperatures between 40 to 50 degrees Celsius, along with high levels of humidity, which would be fatal due to mammals’ inability to shed heat through sweating.
To understand the potential environmental conditions of Pangea Ultima, the researchers used computer climate models to simulate factors such as humidity, rain, wind, and temperature. They also determined the starting and ending levels of carbon dioxide based on biological, oceanic, and tectonic processes. The results showed that only a small percentage, between 8 and 16 percent, of Pangea Ultima’s land area would remain habitable for mammals.
While human-induced climate change is expected to increase Earth’s temperatures over time, the study suggests that the planet will remain habitable until the formation of Pangea Ultima. However, the ability of mammals to adapt to such extreme heat is limited. While mammals can survive in colder temperatures due to evolutionary adaptations, they lack the ability to increase their survivability in hotter temperatures. Therefore, the prognosis for mammalian life on Pangea Ultima appears bleak.
The study also raises questions about the habitability of planets within the so-called “habitable zone” of other star systems. Even if a planet is located in this zone, its habitability depends on factors such as the dispersion of continents. A supercontinent located primarily in the hot, humid tropics, as Pangea Ultima would be, could make the planet inhospitable for humans and other mammalian species.
Pangea Ultima would not be the first supercontinent to dominate Earth’s surface. Scientists believe there have been 10 supercontinents throughout Earth’s history, with Pangea being the most recent. These supercontinents form due to plate tectonics, as the Earth’s surface is divided into several plates that collide and subduct over long periods of time.
While the future of Earth’s habitability under the influence of Pangea Ultima remains uncertain, the study provides valuable insights into how natural processes, rather than human-induced climate change, could shape the planet in the distant future. The findings highlight the importance of ongoing scientific research and discovery to better understand our planet’s past, present, and future.