Poles Vote in Pivotal Election with Far-Reaching Consequences
Poles are heading to the polls today in what has been described as the most important election since the fall of the Berlin Wall. The outcome of this election will have far-reaching consequences for Polish democracy, European unity, and the West’s efforts to confront Russian aggression.
The campaign leading up to this election has been highly charged, with large rallies taking place on the streets of Warsaw, reminiscent of the demonstrations seen during the restoration of democracy three decades ago. Opposition leader Donald Tusk is hoping for a “breakthrough moment” in his long-standing fight against the hard-right Law and Justice party (PiS), led by Jaroslaw Kaczynski. Over the past eight years, PiS has managed to boost Poland’s economy while exerting control over the courts and the media. They have also put in place severe restrictions on abortion, targeted LGBTQ+ rights, and strained the bonds of the European Union.
Nationalism has played a significant role in this campaign, with both sides taking anti-migrant stances. Tusk has also framed this election as a referendum on democracy, emphasizing the high stakes involved. Kaczynski, who is currently Poland’s deputy prime minister and widely regarded as the country’s most powerful politician, has urged voters to choose continuity for “peaceful development and a safe future.”
Nearly 30 million Poles are eligible to vote, and the turnout is expected to be the highest in years. Exit polls are set to be released after the polls close at 9 p.m. Warsaw time. If the vote is inclusive, it could take days or even longer for a government to be formed, potentially leading to another election next year.
There are concerns that Law and Justice may not accept a loss and could challenge the results. The party has already limited the independence of the National Electoral Commission and the Supreme Court, which could be involved in adjudicating a contested vote.
In addition to the political election, Poles are also being presented with four referendum questions, one of which asks whether the admission of thousands of illegal immigrants from the Middle East and Africa should be supported. The opposition has encouraged voters to boycott the referendum, but in order to do so, they must actively decline the referendum ballot, thereby revealing their private voting preference to poll workers.
The outcome of this election is being closely watched by Washington, Brussels, Kyiv, and Moscow as Poland plays a central role in the West’s response to the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Poland has provided military support to Ukraine, equipping them with tanks and fighters, as well as taking in millions of Ukrainian refugees since the war began.
However, domestic politics have complicated Poland’s support for Ukraine. A recent dispute over Ukrainian grain exports led Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki to suggest a potential end to Polish arms shipments.
Law and Justice currently lead in most polls but may fall short of a governing majority. This leaves room for the opposition to find a political agreement. There is a possibility of a deal between Law and Justice and the even harder-right Confederation party, which has drawn disaffected Poles with its anti-Ukrainian rhetoric. Such a deal would be unfavorable for Ukraine and its relations with Poland.
In Poland’s parliamentary system, parties and alliances must pass a certain threshold to win seats in Parliament. If they fail to reach this threshold, their seats are then distributed among the other parties. The smaller political forces, including Confederation, the Left party, and the Third Way alliance, will play a crucial role in determining the election outcome. Tusk is seen as having more natural allies in the Left and Third Way parties, but Kaczynski may attempt to sway individual lawmakers, particularly from the agrarian Polish People’s Party, which is a part of the Third Way alliance.
As the polling stations close and the votes are counted, the results of this pivotal election are eagerly awaited both within Poland and across the globe. The future of Polish democracy, European unity, and the West’s response to Russian aggression hang in the balance.