2023-10-16 16:04:00
Title: Chulalongkorn University Expert Warns of Potential Underestimation of COVID-19 Infections
Date: October 15, 2023
In a recent Facebook post, Assoc. Prof. Dr. Teera Worathanarat, from Chulalongkorn University’s Faculty of Medicine, shared crucial information regarding the accurate estimation of COVID-19 infections. According to his findings, the number of sick individuals admitted to hospitals may indicate a higher number of new infections per day than previously estimated.
Dr. Worathanarat highlighted that from October 8th to October 14th, 2023, the projected daily new infection rate could range between 886 to 1,231 cases. However, this estimation may still fall short due to the limitations associated with early testing using the Antigen Test Kit (ATK).
It has been observed that the sensitivity of ATK testing drops to only 30-60% after the initial days of developing symptoms. This means that individuals who display symptoms and test negative during the first three days may receive false negative results, despite being infected with the virus.
The expert further emphasized that the virus generally peaks on the 4th to 5th day after symptom onset. Hence, if individuals experience symptoms and receive a negative test result within the first three days, they should not become complacent. It is recommended to retest during the 4th to 5th day when the chances of accurate detection are higher.
Considering these challenges in accurately tracking infections, it is plausible that the actual number of daily infections is likely higher than previously estimated. The reporting system has shown a tendency to lag in detecting cases until patients require hospitalization or exhibit severe symptoms.
Dr. Worathanarat also drew attention to the global scenario, suggesting a significant increase in infections during the last quarter of the year. These observations indicate the need for increased vigilance, adherence to preventive measures, and timely testing to effectively control the spread of the virus.
As the world continues its battle against the COVID-19 pandemic, it is crucial to remain aware of the limitations in testing protocols and ensure proactive measures are implemented to accurately track and control the spread of infections. The insights provided by experts like Dr. Worathanarat serve as valuable reminders to the public and healthcare authorities to remain vigilant and responsive to the evolving situation.]
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